Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula
It is now widely known that Antarctic air is warming faster than the rest of the world, and the Antarctic Peninsula has experienced major warming over the last 50 years. The monthly mean near surface temperature at the Faraday/Vernadsky station has increased considerably, at a rate of 0.56°C per dec...
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 2024-09-15T17:42:45+00:00 Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula Hughes, Gillian L Subba Rao, Suhasini Subba Rao, Tata 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 463, issue 2077, page 241-259 ISSN 1364-5021 1471-2946 journal-article 2006 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 2024-07-15T04:26:41Z It is now widely known that Antarctic air is warming faster than the rest of the world, and the Antarctic Peninsula has experienced major warming over the last 50 years. The monthly mean near surface temperature at the Faraday/Vernadsky station has increased considerably, at a rate of 0.56°C per decade over the year and at 1.09°C per decade over the winter. The increase is not the same over all the stations in the Antarctic region, and the increase is very significant at the Faraday/Vernadsky station. Only at this station are the minimum/maximum monthly temperatures, for the period 1951–2004, separately available, and we believe that the increase in mean surface temperature at this station is mainly due to the increases in minimum temperatures. Therefore, our object in this paper is to study the variations in the minimum/maximum temperatures using a multiple regression model with non-Gaussian correlated errors. By separately analysing the minimum and maximum temperatures, we could clearly identify the source of increase. The average temperature (usually calculated as (max+min)/2) smooths out any variation, and may not be that informative. We model the correlated errors using a linear autoregressive moving average model with innovations, which have an extreme value distribution. We describe the maximum-likelihood estimation methodology and apply this to the datasets described earlier. The methods proposed here can be widely used in other disciplines as well. Our analysis has shown that the increase in the minimum monthly temperatures is approximately 6.7°C over 53 years (1951–2003), whereas we did not find any significant change in the maximum temperature over the same period. We also establish a relationship between the minimum monthly temperatures and ozone levels, and use this model to obtain monthly forecasts for the year 2004 and compare it with the true values available up to December 2004. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula The Royal Society Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 463 2077 241 259 |
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crroyalsociety |
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English |
description |
It is now widely known that Antarctic air is warming faster than the rest of the world, and the Antarctic Peninsula has experienced major warming over the last 50 years. The monthly mean near surface temperature at the Faraday/Vernadsky station has increased considerably, at a rate of 0.56°C per decade over the year and at 1.09°C per decade over the winter. The increase is not the same over all the stations in the Antarctic region, and the increase is very significant at the Faraday/Vernadsky station. Only at this station are the minimum/maximum monthly temperatures, for the period 1951–2004, separately available, and we believe that the increase in mean surface temperature at this station is mainly due to the increases in minimum temperatures. Therefore, our object in this paper is to study the variations in the minimum/maximum temperatures using a multiple regression model with non-Gaussian correlated errors. By separately analysing the minimum and maximum temperatures, we could clearly identify the source of increase. The average temperature (usually calculated as (max+min)/2) smooths out any variation, and may not be that informative. We model the correlated errors using a linear autoregressive moving average model with innovations, which have an extreme value distribution. We describe the maximum-likelihood estimation methodology and apply this to the datasets described earlier. The methods proposed here can be widely used in other disciplines as well. Our analysis has shown that the increase in the minimum monthly temperatures is approximately 6.7°C over 53 years (1951–2003), whereas we did not find any significant change in the maximum temperature over the same period. We also establish a relationship between the minimum monthly temperatures and ozone levels, and use this model to obtain monthly forecasts for the year 2004 and compare it with the true values available up to December 2004. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hughes, Gillian L Subba Rao, Suhasini Subba Rao, Tata |
spellingShingle |
Hughes, Gillian L Subba Rao, Suhasini Subba Rao, Tata Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula |
author_facet |
Hughes, Gillian L Subba Rao, Suhasini Subba Rao, Tata |
author_sort |
Hughes, Gillian L |
title |
Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula |
title_short |
Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula |
title_full |
Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula |
title_fullStr |
Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula |
title_sort |
statistical analysis and time-series models for minimum/maximum temperatures in the antarctic peninsula |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula |
op_source |
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences volume 463, issue 2077, page 241-259 ISSN 1364-5021 1471-2946 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2006.1766 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
463 |
container_issue |
2077 |
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241 |
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259 |
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1810489470755012608 |