Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases
The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial...
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2021
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210124 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.210124 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsos.210124 |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsos.210124 2024-09-15T18:31:47+00:00 Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases Mysterud, Atle Viljugrein, Hildegunn Rolandsen, Christer M. Belsare, Aniruddha V. 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210124 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.210124 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsos.210124 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Royal Society Open Science volume 8, issue 3 ISSN 2054-5703 journal-article 2021 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210124 2024-07-29T04:23:23Z The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population. Article in Journal/Newspaper Rangifer tarandus The Royal Society Royal Society Open Science 8 3 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mysterud, Atle Viljugrein, Hildegunn Rolandsen, Christer M. Belsare, Aniruddha V. |
spellingShingle |
Mysterud, Atle Viljugrein, Hildegunn Rolandsen, Christer M. Belsare, Aniruddha V. Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
author_facet |
Mysterud, Atle Viljugrein, Hildegunn Rolandsen, Christer M. Belsare, Aniruddha V. |
author_sort |
Mysterud, Atle |
title |
Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_short |
Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_full |
Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_fullStr |
Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_full_unstemmed |
Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
title_sort |
harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210124 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.210124 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsos.210124 |
genre |
Rangifer tarandus |
genre_facet |
Rangifer tarandus |
op_source |
Royal Society Open Science volume 8, issue 3 ISSN 2054-5703 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210124 |
container_title |
Royal Society Open Science |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1810473535985942528 |