Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador
In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and La...
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsos.202266 2024-06-02T08:10:41+00:00 Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador Hurford, Amy Rahman, Proton Loredo-Osti, J. Concepción Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202266 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.202266 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsos.202266 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Royal Society Open Science volume 8, issue 6, page 202266 ISSN 2054-5703 journal-article 2021 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202266 2024-05-07T14:16:05Z In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from 14 March to 26 June. We predicted possible outbreaks over nine weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40–70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after 4 May. Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland The Royal Society Newfoundland Royal Society Open Science 8 6 202266 |
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In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from 14 March to 26 June. We predicted possible outbreaks over nine weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40–70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after 4 May. |
author2 |
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hurford, Amy Rahman, Proton Loredo-Osti, J. Concepción |
spellingShingle |
Hurford, Amy Rahman, Proton Loredo-Osti, J. Concepción Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador |
author_facet |
Hurford, Amy Rahman, Proton Loredo-Osti, J. Concepción |
author_sort |
Hurford, Amy |
title |
Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador |
title_short |
Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador |
title_full |
Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador |
title_sort |
modelling the impact of travel restrictions on covid-19 cases in newfoundland and labrador |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202266 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.202266 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsos.202266 |
geographic |
Newfoundland |
geographic_facet |
Newfoundland |
genre |
Newfoundland |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland |
op_source |
Royal Society Open Science volume 8, issue 6, page 202266 ISSN 2054-5703 |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.202266 |
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Royal Society Open Science |
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8 |
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6 |
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202266 |
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