High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese
Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects . Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been dire...
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2020
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 |
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 2024-06-23T07:50:05+00:00 High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese Fjelldal, Mari Aas Layton-Matthews, Kate Lee, Aline Magdalena Grøtan, Vidar Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Hansen, Brage Bremset Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Norges Forskningsråd Rijksuniversiteit Groningen 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 en eng The Royal Society http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Biology Letters volume 16, issue 4, page 20200075 ISSN 1744-9561 1744-957X journal-article 2020 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 2024-06-04T06:23:09Z Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects . Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change . Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis . Using long-term mark–recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017) , we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year olds, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history trade-offs and long-term population trajectories. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard The Royal Society Arctic Svalbard Biology Letters 16 4 20200075 |
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Open Polar |
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The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
language |
English |
description |
Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects . Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change . Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis . Using long-term mark–recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017) , we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year olds, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history trade-offs and long-term population trajectories. |
author2 |
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Norges Forskningsråd Rijksuniversiteit Groningen |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fjelldal, Mari Aas Layton-Matthews, Kate Lee, Aline Magdalena Grøtan, Vidar Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Hansen, Brage Bremset |
spellingShingle |
Fjelldal, Mari Aas Layton-Matthews, Kate Lee, Aline Magdalena Grøtan, Vidar Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Hansen, Brage Bremset High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
author_facet |
Fjelldal, Mari Aas Layton-Matthews, Kate Lee, Aline Magdalena Grøtan, Vidar Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Hansen, Brage Bremset |
author_sort |
Fjelldal, Mari Aas |
title |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_short |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_full |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_fullStr |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_full_unstemmed |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_sort |
high-arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
op_source |
Biology Letters volume 16, issue 4, page 20200075 ISSN 1744-9561 1744-957X |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 |
container_title |
Biology Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
20200075 |
_version_ |
1802640855945707520 |