Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines
Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (...
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 2024-06-23T07:50:32+00:00 Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines Regehr, Eric V. Laidre, Kristin L. Akçakaya, H. Resit Amstrup, Steven C. Atwood, Todd C. Lunn, Nicholas J. Obbard, Martyn Stern, Harry Thiemann, Gregory W. Wiig, Øystein National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Biology Letters volume 12, issue 12, page 20160556 ISSN 1744-9561 1744-957X journal-article 2016 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 2024-06-04T06:23:04Z Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year −1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice Ursus maritimus The Royal Society Arctic Biology Letters 12 12 20160556 |
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Open Polar |
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The Royal Society |
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crroyalsociety |
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English |
description |
Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year −1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions. |
author2 |
National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Regehr, Eric V. Laidre, Kristin L. Akçakaya, H. Resit Amstrup, Steven C. Atwood, Todd C. Lunn, Nicholas J. Obbard, Martyn Stern, Harry Thiemann, Gregory W. Wiig, Øystein |
spellingShingle |
Regehr, Eric V. Laidre, Kristin L. Akçakaya, H. Resit Amstrup, Steven C. Atwood, Todd C. Lunn, Nicholas J. Obbard, Martyn Stern, Harry Thiemann, Gregory W. Wiig, Øystein Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines |
author_facet |
Regehr, Eric V. Laidre, Kristin L. Akçakaya, H. Resit Amstrup, Steven C. Atwood, Todd C. Lunn, Nicholas J. Obbard, Martyn Stern, Harry Thiemann, Gregory W. Wiig, Øystein |
author_sort |
Regehr, Eric V. |
title |
Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines |
title_short |
Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines |
title_full |
Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines |
title_fullStr |
Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines |
title_full_unstemmed |
Conservation status of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines |
title_sort |
conservation status of polar bears ( ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice Ursus maritimus |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice Ursus maritimus |
op_source |
Biology Letters volume 12, issue 12, page 20160556 ISSN 1744-9561 1744-957X |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0556 |
container_title |
Biology Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
20160556 |
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1802641442527510528 |