The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’
Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones ( Arenaria interpres ) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high...
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crroyalsociety:10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 2024-09-15T17:54:39+00:00 The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’ Brown, V. L. Rohani, Pejman 2012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 en eng The Royal Society https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ Biology Letters volume 8, issue 6, page 1036-1039 ISSN 1744-9561 1744-957X journal-article 2012 crroyalsociety https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 2024-07-01T04:20:45Z Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones ( Arenaria interpres ) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high AIV prevalence in only one location—Delaware Bay, USA, during their spring migration. While there, they congregate on beaches, attracted by the super-abundance of horseshoe crab eggs. A relationship between ruddy turnstone and horseshoe crab ( Limulus polyphemus ) population sizes has been established, with a declining horseshoe crab population linked to a corresponding drop in ruddy turnstone population sizes. The effect of this interaction on AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones has also been addressed. Here, we employ a transmission model to investigate how the interaction between these two species is likely to be altered by climate change. We explore the consequences of this modified interaction on both ruddy turnstone population size and AIV prevalence and show that, if climate change leads to a large enough mismatch in species phenology, AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones will increase even as their population size decreases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arenaria interpres Ruddy Turnstone The Royal Society Biology Letters 8 6 1036 1039 |
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English |
description |
Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones ( Arenaria interpres ) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high AIV prevalence in only one location—Delaware Bay, USA, during their spring migration. While there, they congregate on beaches, attracted by the super-abundance of horseshoe crab eggs. A relationship between ruddy turnstone and horseshoe crab ( Limulus polyphemus ) population sizes has been established, with a declining horseshoe crab population linked to a corresponding drop in ruddy turnstone population sizes. The effect of this interaction on AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones has also been addressed. Here, we employ a transmission model to investigate how the interaction between these two species is likely to be altered by climate change. We explore the consequences of this modified interaction on both ruddy turnstone population size and AIV prevalence and show that, if climate change leads to a large enough mismatch in species phenology, AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones will increase even as their population size decreases. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brown, V. L. Rohani, Pejman |
spellingShingle |
Brown, V. L. Rohani, Pejman The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’ |
author_facet |
Brown, V. L. Rohani, Pejman |
author_sort |
Brown, V. L. |
title |
The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’ |
title_short |
The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’ |
title_full |
The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’ |
title_fullStr |
The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’ |
title_full_unstemmed |
The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’ |
title_sort |
consequences of climate change at an avian influenza ‘hotspot’ |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full-xml/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 |
genre |
Arenaria interpres Ruddy Turnstone |
genre_facet |
Arenaria interpres Ruddy Turnstone |
op_source |
Biology Letters volume 8, issue 6, page 1036-1039 ISSN 1744-9561 1744-957X |
op_rights |
https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635 |
container_title |
Biology Letters |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1036 |
op_container_end_page |
1039 |
_version_ |
1810430991005646848 |