Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario
Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for rob...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 |
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crplos:10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 2024-06-23T07:51:45+00:00 Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario Alabia, Irene D. Molinos, Jorge García Hirata, Takafumi Narita, Daiju Hirawake, Toru Holt, Carrie A. Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 en eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ PLOS ONE volume 19, issue 6, page e0304718 ISSN 1932-6203 journal-article 2024 crplos https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 2024-06-11T04:26:27Z Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading to contrasting future (2021–2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary production. Our results revealed contrasting patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, time periods and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. In particular, the least changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. However, under the extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod and snow crab abundances increased and decreased, respectively, with concurrent zonal and meridional future shifts in their centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of highly valuable species despite minimal declines in maximum catch potential, which are dominated by less valuable taxa. Hence, our findings show that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have important biological and economic impacts on the productivity of commercial and subsistence fisheries in the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, with potential implications for the effective management of transboundary ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Snow crab PLOS Bering Sea Chukchi Sea Pacific PLOS ONE 19 6 e0304718 |
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Open Polar |
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PLOS |
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crplos |
language |
English |
description |
Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading to contrasting future (2021–2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary production. Our results revealed contrasting patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, time periods and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. In particular, the least changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. However, under the extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod and snow crab abundances increased and decreased, respectively, with concurrent zonal and meridional future shifts in their centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of highly valuable species despite minimal declines in maximum catch potential, which are dominated by less valuable taxa. Hence, our findings show that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have important biological and economic impacts on the productivity of commercial and subsistence fisheries in the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, with potential implications for the effective management of transboundary ... |
author2 |
Holt, Carrie A. Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alabia, Irene D. Molinos, Jorge García Hirata, Takafumi Narita, Daiju Hirawake, Toru |
spellingShingle |
Alabia, Irene D. Molinos, Jorge García Hirata, Takafumi Narita, Daiju Hirawake, Toru Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario |
author_facet |
Alabia, Irene D. Molinos, Jorge García Hirata, Takafumi Narita, Daiju Hirawake, Toru |
author_sort |
Alabia, Irene D. |
title |
Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario |
title_short |
Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario |
title_full |
Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario |
title_fullStr |
Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario |
title_sort |
future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 |
geographic |
Bering Sea Chukchi Sea Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea Chukchi Sea Pacific |
genre |
Bering Sea Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Snow crab |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea Chukchi Chukchi Sea Sea ice Snow crab |
op_source |
PLOS ONE volume 19, issue 6, page e0304718 ISSN 1932-6203 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0304718 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0304718 |
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1802642886226870272 |