Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California
We document changes in the number of sightings and timing of humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), blue ( Balaenoptera musculus ), and gray ( Eschrichtius robustus ) whale migratory phases in the vicinity of the Farallon Islands, California. We hypothesized that changes in the timing of migration off...
Published in: | PLOS ONE |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 |
id |
crplos:10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crplos:10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 2024-05-19T07:37:59+00:00 Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California Ingman, Kaytlin Hines, Ellen Mazzini, Piero L. F. Rockwood, R. Cotton Nur, Nadav Jahncke, Jaime Li, Songhai Paul Angell Family Foundation Paul Angell Family Foundation Paul Angell Family Foundation Bently Foundation Bently Foundation Bently Foundation Boring Family Foundation Boring Family Foundation Boring Family Foundation California Sea Grant California Sea Grant California Sea Grant Campini Foundation Campini Foundation Campini Foundation David and Lucile Packard Foundation David and Lucile Packard Foundation David and Lucile Packard Foundation Elinor Paterson Baker Trust Elinor Paterson Baker Trust Elinor Paterson Baker Trust Firedoll Foundation Firedoll Foundation Firedoll Foundation Faucett Catalyst Fund Faucett Catalyst Fund Faucett Catalyst Fund Giles W. and Elise G. Mead Foundation Giles W. and Elise G. Mead Foundation Giles W. and Elise G. Mead Foundation Hellman Family Foundation Hellman Family Foundation Hellman Family Foundation Kimball Foundation Kimball Foundation Kimball Foundation Marisla Foundation Marisla Foundation Marisla Foundation Moore Family Foundation Moore Family Foundation Moore Family Foundation National Fish and Wildlife Foundation National Fish and Wildlife Foundation National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Pacific Life Foundation Pacific Life Foundation Pacific Life Foundation Resources Legacy Fund 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 en eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ PLOS ONE volume 16, issue 4, page e0248557 ISSN 1932-6203 journal-article 2021 crplos https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 2024-05-01T07:06:01Z We document changes in the number of sightings and timing of humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), blue ( Balaenoptera musculus ), and gray ( Eschrichtius robustus ) whale migratory phases in the vicinity of the Farallon Islands, California. We hypothesized that changes in the timing of migration off central California were driven by local oceanography, regional upwelling, and basin-scale climate conditions. Using 24 years of daily whale counts collected from Southeast Farallon Island, we developed negative binomial regression models to evaluate trends in local whale sightings over time. We then used linear models to assess trends in the timing of migration, and to identify potential environmental drivers. These drivers included local, regional and basin-scale patterns; the latter included the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, which influence, wind-driven upwelling, and overall productivity in the California Current System. We then created a forecast model to predict the timing of migration. Humpback whale sightings significantly increased over the study period, but blue and gray whale counts did not, though there was variability across the time series. Date of breeding migration (departure) for all species showed little to no change, whereas date of migration towards feeding areas (arrival) occurred earlier for humpback and blue whales. Timing was significantly influenced by a mix of local oceanography, regional, and basin-scale climate variables. Earlier arrival time without concomitant earlier departure time results in longer periods when blue and humpback whales are at risk of entanglement in the Gulf of the Farallones. We maintain that these changes have increased whale exposure to pot and trap fishery gear off the central California coast during the spring, elevating the risk of entanglements. Humpback entanglement rates were significantly associated with increased counts and early arrival in central California. Actions to decrease the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Balaenoptera musculus baleen whale Humpback Whale Megaptera novaeangliae PLOS PLOS ONE 16 4 e0248557 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PLOS |
op_collection_id |
crplos |
language |
English |
description |
We document changes in the number of sightings and timing of humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), blue ( Balaenoptera musculus ), and gray ( Eschrichtius robustus ) whale migratory phases in the vicinity of the Farallon Islands, California. We hypothesized that changes in the timing of migration off central California were driven by local oceanography, regional upwelling, and basin-scale climate conditions. Using 24 years of daily whale counts collected from Southeast Farallon Island, we developed negative binomial regression models to evaluate trends in local whale sightings over time. We then used linear models to assess trends in the timing of migration, and to identify potential environmental drivers. These drivers included local, regional and basin-scale patterns; the latter included the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, which influence, wind-driven upwelling, and overall productivity in the California Current System. We then created a forecast model to predict the timing of migration. Humpback whale sightings significantly increased over the study period, but blue and gray whale counts did not, though there was variability across the time series. Date of breeding migration (departure) for all species showed little to no change, whereas date of migration towards feeding areas (arrival) occurred earlier for humpback and blue whales. Timing was significantly influenced by a mix of local oceanography, regional, and basin-scale climate variables. Earlier arrival time without concomitant earlier departure time results in longer periods when blue and humpback whales are at risk of entanglement in the Gulf of the Farallones. We maintain that these changes have increased whale exposure to pot and trap fishery gear off the central California coast during the spring, elevating the risk of entanglements. Humpback entanglement rates were significantly associated with increased counts and early arrival in central California. Actions to decrease the ... |
author2 |
Li, Songhai Paul Angell Family Foundation Paul Angell Family Foundation Paul Angell Family Foundation Bently Foundation Bently Foundation Bently Foundation Boring Family Foundation Boring Family Foundation Boring Family Foundation California Sea Grant California Sea Grant California Sea Grant Campini Foundation Campini Foundation Campini Foundation David and Lucile Packard Foundation David and Lucile Packard Foundation David and Lucile Packard Foundation Elinor Paterson Baker Trust Elinor Paterson Baker Trust Elinor Paterson Baker Trust Firedoll Foundation Firedoll Foundation Firedoll Foundation Faucett Catalyst Fund Faucett Catalyst Fund Faucett Catalyst Fund Giles W. and Elise G. Mead Foundation Giles W. and Elise G. Mead Foundation Giles W. and Elise G. Mead Foundation Hellman Family Foundation Hellman Family Foundation Hellman Family Foundation Kimball Foundation Kimball Foundation Kimball Foundation Marisla Foundation Marisla Foundation Marisla Foundation Moore Family Foundation Moore Family Foundation Moore Family Foundation National Fish and Wildlife Foundation National Fish and Wildlife Foundation National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Pacific Life Foundation Pacific Life Foundation Pacific Life Foundation Resources Legacy Fund |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ingman, Kaytlin Hines, Ellen Mazzini, Piero L. F. Rockwood, R. Cotton Nur, Nadav Jahncke, Jaime |
spellingShingle |
Ingman, Kaytlin Hines, Ellen Mazzini, Piero L. F. Rockwood, R. Cotton Nur, Nadav Jahncke, Jaime Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California |
author_facet |
Ingman, Kaytlin Hines, Ellen Mazzini, Piero L. F. Rockwood, R. Cotton Nur, Nadav Jahncke, Jaime |
author_sort |
Ingman, Kaytlin |
title |
Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California |
title_short |
Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California |
title_full |
Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California |
title_fullStr |
Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in California |
title_sort |
modeling changes in baleen whale seasonal abundance, timing of migration, and environmental variables to explain the sudden rise in entanglements in california |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 |
genre |
Balaenoptera musculus baleen whale Humpback Whale Megaptera novaeangliae |
genre_facet |
Balaenoptera musculus baleen whale Humpback Whale Megaptera novaeangliae |
op_source |
PLOS ONE volume 16, issue 4, page e0248557 ISSN 1932-6203 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248557 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
e0248557 |
_version_ |
1799477374504402944 |