Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic
Background To suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-Co...
Published in: | PLOS ONE |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 |
id |
crplos:10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
crplos:10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 2024-05-19T07:46:02+00:00 Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic Rypdal, Martin Rypdal, Veronika Jakobsen, Per Kristen Ytterstad, Elinor Løvsletten, Ola Klingenberg, Claus Rypdal, Kristoffer Lau, Eric HY 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 en eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ PLOS ONE volume 16, issue 2, page e0238268 ISSN 1932-6203 journal-article 2021 crplos https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 2024-05-01T07:05:24Z Background To suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still unclear. There are only a few studies of school closures as a separate intervention to other social distancing measures, and little research exists on the effect of school opening during a pandemic. Objective This study aimed to model the effect of opening kindergartens and the schools in Norway in terms of a change in the reproduction number ( R ). A secondary objective was to assess if we can use the estimated R after school openings to infer the rates of transmission between children in schools. Methods We used an individual-based model (IBM) to assess the reopening of kindergartens and schools in two Norwegian cities, Oslo, the Norwegian capital, with a population of approximately 680 000, and Tromsø, which is the largest city in Northern Norway, with a population of approximately 75 000. The model uses demographic information and detailed data about the schools in both cities. We carried out an ensemble study to obtain robust results in spite of the considerable uncertainty that remains about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Results We found that reopening of Norwegian kindergartens and schools are associated with a change in R of 0.10 (95%CI 0.04–0.16) and 0.14 (95%CI 0.01–0.25) in the two cities under investigation if the in-school transmission rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus are equal to what has previously been estimated for influenza pandemics. Conclusion We found only a limited effect of reopening schools on the reproduction number, and we expect the same to hold true in other countries where nonpharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the pandemic. Consequently, current R -estimates are insufficiently accurate for determining the transmission rates in schools. For countries that have ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Norway Tromsø PLOS PLOS ONE 16 2 e0238268 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PLOS |
op_collection_id |
crplos |
language |
English |
description |
Background To suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still unclear. There are only a few studies of school closures as a separate intervention to other social distancing measures, and little research exists on the effect of school opening during a pandemic. Objective This study aimed to model the effect of opening kindergartens and the schools in Norway in terms of a change in the reproduction number ( R ). A secondary objective was to assess if we can use the estimated R after school openings to infer the rates of transmission between children in schools. Methods We used an individual-based model (IBM) to assess the reopening of kindergartens and schools in two Norwegian cities, Oslo, the Norwegian capital, with a population of approximately 680 000, and Tromsø, which is the largest city in Northern Norway, with a population of approximately 75 000. The model uses demographic information and detailed data about the schools in both cities. We carried out an ensemble study to obtain robust results in spite of the considerable uncertainty that remains about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Results We found that reopening of Norwegian kindergartens and schools are associated with a change in R of 0.10 (95%CI 0.04–0.16) and 0.14 (95%CI 0.01–0.25) in the two cities under investigation if the in-school transmission rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus are equal to what has previously been estimated for influenza pandemics. Conclusion We found only a limited effect of reopening schools on the reproduction number, and we expect the same to hold true in other countries where nonpharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the pandemic. Consequently, current R -estimates are insufficiently accurate for determining the transmission rates in schools. For countries that have ... |
author2 |
Lau, Eric HY |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rypdal, Martin Rypdal, Veronika Jakobsen, Per Kristen Ytterstad, Elinor Løvsletten, Ola Klingenberg, Claus Rypdal, Kristoffer |
spellingShingle |
Rypdal, Martin Rypdal, Veronika Jakobsen, Per Kristen Ytterstad, Elinor Løvsletten, Ola Klingenberg, Claus Rypdal, Kristoffer Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic |
author_facet |
Rypdal, Martin Rypdal, Veronika Jakobsen, Per Kristen Ytterstad, Elinor Løvsletten, Ola Klingenberg, Claus Rypdal, Kristoffer |
author_sort |
Rypdal, Martin |
title |
Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_short |
Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full |
Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_fullStr |
Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_sort |
modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening norwegian kindergartens and schools during the covid-19 pandemic |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 |
genre |
Northern Norway Tromsø |
genre_facet |
Northern Norway Tromsø |
op_source |
PLOS ONE volume 16, issue 2, page e0238268 ISSN 1932-6203 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238268 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
e0238268 |
_version_ |
1799486153875783680 |