Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios
Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the histor...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 |
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crplos:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 2024-06-23T07:56:44+00:00 Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios Poletti, Alyssa N. Frierson, Dargan M. W. Aerenson, Travis Nikumbh, Akshaya Carroll, Rachel Henshaw, William Scheff, Jack Kenawy, Ahmed National Science Foundation 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 en eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ PLOS Climate volume 3, issue 2, page e0000343 ISSN 2767-3200 journal-article 2024 crplos https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 2024-06-04T06:17:05Z Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the historical record and into the future. The simulations exhibit between 9.3 and 17.5°C global mean temperature change between pre-Industrial and the end of the 23rd century. The extremely large changes in global temperature allow exploration of fundamental questions in climate dynamics, such as the determination of moisture and energy transports, and their relation to global atmosphere-ocean circulation. Three models performed simulations of SSP5-8.5 to 2300: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and CanESM5. We analyze these simulations to improve understanding of climate dynamics, rather than as plausible futures. In the model with the most warming, CanESM5, the moisture content of the planet more than doubles, and the hydrologic cycle increases in intensity. In CanESM5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR nearly all sea ice is eliminated in both summer and winter in both hemispheres. In all three models, the Hadley circulation weakens, the tropopause height rises, and storm tracks shift poleward, to varying degrees. We analyze the moist static energy transports in the simulations using a diffusive framework. The dry static energy flux decreases to compensate for the increased moisture transport; however the compensation is imperfect. The total atmospheric transport increases but not as quickly as expected with a constant diffusivity. The decrease in eddy intensity plays an important role in determining the energy transports, as do the pattern of cloud feedbacks and the strength of ocean circulations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice PLOS PLOS Climate 3 2 e0000343 |
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Open Polar |
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PLOS |
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crplos |
language |
English |
description |
Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the historical record and into the future. The simulations exhibit between 9.3 and 17.5°C global mean temperature change between pre-Industrial and the end of the 23rd century. The extremely large changes in global temperature allow exploration of fundamental questions in climate dynamics, such as the determination of moisture and energy transports, and their relation to global atmosphere-ocean circulation. Three models performed simulations of SSP5-8.5 to 2300: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and CanESM5. We analyze these simulations to improve understanding of climate dynamics, rather than as plausible futures. In the model with the most warming, CanESM5, the moisture content of the planet more than doubles, and the hydrologic cycle increases in intensity. In CanESM5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR nearly all sea ice is eliminated in both summer and winter in both hemispheres. In all three models, the Hadley circulation weakens, the tropopause height rises, and storm tracks shift poleward, to varying degrees. We analyze the moist static energy transports in the simulations using a diffusive framework. The dry static energy flux decreases to compensate for the increased moisture transport; however the compensation is imperfect. The total atmospheric transport increases but not as quickly as expected with a constant diffusivity. The decrease in eddy intensity plays an important role in determining the energy transports, as do the pattern of cloud feedbacks and the strength of ocean circulations. |
author2 |
Kenawy, Ahmed National Science Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Poletti, Alyssa N. Frierson, Dargan M. W. Aerenson, Travis Nikumbh, Akshaya Carroll, Rachel Henshaw, William Scheff, Jack |
spellingShingle |
Poletti, Alyssa N. Frierson, Dargan M. W. Aerenson, Travis Nikumbh, Akshaya Carroll, Rachel Henshaw, William Scheff, Jack Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios |
author_facet |
Poletti, Alyssa N. Frierson, Dargan M. W. Aerenson, Travis Nikumbh, Akshaya Carroll, Rachel Henshaw, William Scheff, Jack |
author_sort |
Poletti, Alyssa N. |
title |
Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios |
title_short |
Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios |
title_full |
Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios |
title_sort |
atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
PLOS Climate volume 3, issue 2, page e0000343 ISSN 2767-3200 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343 |
container_title |
PLOS Climate |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
e0000343 |
_version_ |
1802650032441131008 |