Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?
Tufted Puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous...
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crpeerj:10.7717/peerj.4519 2024-06-02T08:06:51+00:00 Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? Hart, Christopher J. Kelly, Ryan P. Pearson, Scott F. 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 https://peerj.com/articles/4519.pdf https://peerj.com/articles/4519.xml https://peerj.com/articles/4519.html en eng PeerJ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ PeerJ volume 6, page e4519 ISSN 2167-8359 journal-article 2018 crpeerj https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 2024-05-07T14:14:05Z Tufted Puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Article in Journal/Newspaper fratercula PeerJ Publishing PeerJ 6 e4519 |
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Tufted Puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hart, Christopher J. Kelly, Ryan P. Pearson, Scott F. |
spellingShingle |
Hart, Christopher J. Kelly, Ryan P. Pearson, Scott F. Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
author_facet |
Hart, Christopher J. Kelly, Ryan P. Pearson, Scott F. |
author_sort |
Hart, Christopher J. |
title |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_short |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_full |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_fullStr |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_sort |
will the california current lose its nesting tufted puffins? |
publisher |
PeerJ |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 https://peerj.com/articles/4519.pdf https://peerj.com/articles/4519.xml https://peerj.com/articles/4519.html |
genre |
fratercula |
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fratercula |
op_source |
PeerJ volume 6, page e4519 ISSN 2167-8359 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 |
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PeerJ |
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6 |
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e4519 |
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1800751834297532416 |