Modelling The Spatial Extent and Severity of Extreme European Windstorms
Summary Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonly linked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsible for the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds are typically generated by extratropical cyclone systems originat...
Published in: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics |
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2019
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Frssc.12391 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://academic.oup.com/jrsssc/article-pdf/69/2/223/49339811/jrsssc_69_2_223.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1111/rssc.12391 2024-09-09T19:57:19+00:00 Modelling The Spatial Extent and Severity of Extreme European Windstorms Sharkey, Paul Tawn, Jonathan A. Brown, Simon J. Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council EDF Energy UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy–Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Lancaster University 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Frssc.12391 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://academic.oup.com/jrsssc/article-pdf/69/2/223/49339811/jrsssc_69_2_223.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics volume 69, issue 2, page 223-250 ISSN 0035-9254 1467-9876 journal-article 2019 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12391 2024-08-05T04:31:00Z Summary Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonly linked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsible for the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds are typically generated by extratropical cyclone systems originating in the North Atlantic and passing over Europe. Previous statistical studies tend to model extreme winds at a given set of sites, corresponding to inference in an Eulerian framework. Such inference cannot incorporate knowledge of the life cycle and progression of extratropical cyclones across the region and is forced to make restrictive assumptions about the extremal dependence structure. We take an entirely different approach which overcomes these limitations by working in a Lagrangian framework. Specifically, we model the development of windstorms over time, preserving the physical characteristics linking the windstorm and the cyclone track, the path of local vorticity maxima, and make a key finding that the spatial extent of extratropical windstorms becomes more localized as its magnitude increases irrespective of the location of the storm track. Our model allows simulation of synthetic windstorm events to derive the joint distributional features over any set of sites giving physically consistent extrapolations to rarer events. From such simulations improved estimates of this hazard can be achieved in terms of both intensity and area affected. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Oxford University Press Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics 69 2 223 250 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
description |
Summary Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonly linked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsible for the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds are typically generated by extratropical cyclone systems originating in the North Atlantic and passing over Europe. Previous statistical studies tend to model extreme winds at a given set of sites, corresponding to inference in an Eulerian framework. Such inference cannot incorporate knowledge of the life cycle and progression of extratropical cyclones across the region and is forced to make restrictive assumptions about the extremal dependence structure. We take an entirely different approach which overcomes these limitations by working in a Lagrangian framework. Specifically, we model the development of windstorms over time, preserving the physical characteristics linking the windstorm and the cyclone track, the path of local vorticity maxima, and make a key finding that the spatial extent of extratropical windstorms becomes more localized as its magnitude increases irrespective of the location of the storm track. Our model allows simulation of synthetic windstorm events to derive the joint distributional features over any set of sites giving physically consistent extrapolations to rarer events. From such simulations improved estimates of this hazard can be achieved in terms of both intensity and area affected. |
author2 |
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council EDF Energy UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy–Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Lancaster University |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sharkey, Paul Tawn, Jonathan A. Brown, Simon J. |
spellingShingle |
Sharkey, Paul Tawn, Jonathan A. Brown, Simon J. Modelling The Spatial Extent and Severity of Extreme European Windstorms |
author_facet |
Sharkey, Paul Tawn, Jonathan A. Brown, Simon J. |
author_sort |
Sharkey, Paul |
title |
Modelling The Spatial Extent and Severity of Extreme European Windstorms |
title_short |
Modelling The Spatial Extent and Severity of Extreme European Windstorms |
title_full |
Modelling The Spatial Extent and Severity of Extreme European Windstorms |
title_fullStr |
Modelling The Spatial Extent and Severity of Extreme European Windstorms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling The Spatial Extent and Severity of Extreme European Windstorms |
title_sort |
modelling the spatial extent and severity of extreme european windstorms |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://api.wiley.com/onlinelibrary/tdm/v1/articles/10.1111%2Frssc.12391 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full-xml/10.1111/rssc.12391 https://academic.oup.com/jrsssc/article-pdf/69/2/223/49339811/jrsssc_69_2_223.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics volume 69, issue 2, page 223-250 ISSN 0035-9254 1467-9876 |
op_rights |
https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12391 |
container_title |
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics |
container_volume |
69 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
223 |
op_container_end_page |
250 |
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1809928235772805120 |