Global warming in the pipeline
Abstract Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008 https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article-pdf/3/1/kgad008/52763128/kgad008.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008 2024-06-23T07:53:49+00:00 Global warming in the pipeline Hansen, James E Sato, Makiko Simons, Leon Nazarenko, Larissa S Sangha, Isabelle Kharecha, Pushker Zachos, James C von Schuckmann, Karina Loeb, Norman G Osman, Matthew B Jin, Qinjian Tselioudis, George Jeong, Eunbi Lacis, Andrew Ruedy, Reto Russell, Gary Cao, Junji Li, Jing 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008 https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article-pdf/3/1/kgad008/52763128/kgad008.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Oxford Open Climate Change volume 3, issue 1 ISSN 2634-4068 journal-article 2023 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008 2024-06-11T04:16:05Z Abstract Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Oxford University Press Oxford Open Climate Change 3 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
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description |
Abstract Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change yields Charney (fast-feedback) equilibrium climate sensitivity 1.2 ± 0.3°C (2σ) per W/m2, which is 4.8°C ± 1.2°C for doubled CO2. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full Cenozoic era—including ‘slow’ feedbacks by ice sheets and trace gases—supports this sensitivity and implies that CO2 was 300–350 ppm in the Pliocene and about 450 ppm at transition to a nearly ice-free planet, exposing unrealistic lethargy of ice sheet models. Equilibrium global warming for today’s GHG amount is 10°C, which is reduced to 8°C by today’s human-made aerosols. Equilibrium warming is not ‘committed’ warming; rapid phaseout of GHG emissions would prevent most equilibrium warming from occurring. However, decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade to a post-2010 rate of at least 0.27°C per decade. Thus, under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes. The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hansen, James E Sato, Makiko Simons, Leon Nazarenko, Larissa S Sangha, Isabelle Kharecha, Pushker Zachos, James C von Schuckmann, Karina Loeb, Norman G Osman, Matthew B Jin, Qinjian Tselioudis, George Jeong, Eunbi Lacis, Andrew Ruedy, Reto Russell, Gary Cao, Junji Li, Jing |
spellingShingle |
Hansen, James E Sato, Makiko Simons, Leon Nazarenko, Larissa S Sangha, Isabelle Kharecha, Pushker Zachos, James C von Schuckmann, Karina Loeb, Norman G Osman, Matthew B Jin, Qinjian Tselioudis, George Jeong, Eunbi Lacis, Andrew Ruedy, Reto Russell, Gary Cao, Junji Li, Jing Global warming in the pipeline |
author_facet |
Hansen, James E Sato, Makiko Simons, Leon Nazarenko, Larissa S Sangha, Isabelle Kharecha, Pushker Zachos, James C von Schuckmann, Karina Loeb, Norman G Osman, Matthew B Jin, Qinjian Tselioudis, George Jeong, Eunbi Lacis, Andrew Ruedy, Reto Russell, Gary Cao, Junji Li, Jing |
author_sort |
Hansen, James E |
title |
Global warming in the pipeline |
title_short |
Global warming in the pipeline |
title_full |
Global warming in the pipeline |
title_fullStr |
Global warming in the pipeline |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global warming in the pipeline |
title_sort |
global warming in the pipeline |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008 https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article-pdf/3/1/kgad008/52763128/kgad008.pdf |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Oxford Open Climate Change volume 3, issue 1 ISSN 2634-4068 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008 |
container_title |
Oxford Open Climate Change |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1802645661297934336 |