The Twenty-First-Century Terrain of Uncertainty

Abstract The twenty-first century terrain offers two broad types of uncertainties: those related to traditional forms of power (military, territory, demographics, and wealth), and those having to do with nontraditional forms related to intelligence (capacities to learn, whether through a traditional...

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Main Author: Sims, Jennifer E.
Format: Book Part
Language:unknown
Published: Oxford University PressNew York 2022
Subjects:
Arctic
Climate change
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197508046.003.0014
https://academic.oup.com/book/chapter-pdf/47120853/oso-9780197508046-chapter-14.pdf
id croxfordunivpr:10.1093/oso/9780197508046.003.0014
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spelling croxfordunivpr:10.1093/oso/9780197508046.003.0014 2023-05-15T15:06:48+02:00 The Twenty-First-Century Terrain of Uncertainty Sims, Jennifer E. 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197508046.003.0014 https://academic.oup.com/book/chapter-pdf/47120853/oso-9780197508046-chapter-14.pdf unknown Oxford University PressNew York Decision Advantage page 441-472 ISBN 0197508049 9780197508046 9780197508077 book-chapter 2022 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197508046.003.0014 2022-12-29T15:36:36Z Abstract The twenty-first century terrain offers two broad types of uncertainties: those related to traditional forms of power (military, territory, demographics, and wealth), and those having to do with nontraditional forms related to intelligence (capacities to learn, whether through a traditional intelligence system or not). With respect to the former, the United States, Russia, China, and Europe will remain the principal great powers coping with their conflicting interests, changing power relationships and the effects of climate change, such as mass migration and a warming Arctic. The information revolution—the second basket of uncertainties—has affected states’ relative capacities to manage instability and disorder. The rapidly advancing, intelligence-based forms of power will allow hacker-enabled nonstate actors and wealthy corporations such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Alibaba to influence international politics at an unprecedented scale. They will vie with traditional intelligence services over control of competitive learning, and will punch above their weight as they buy and sell intelligence services to states. Countries that foster innovation and private-sector alliances will likely gain intelligence advantages over others. Without wise pursuit and careful management of such alliances, however, authoritarians will have growing capacities for social and political influence, deception, and cyberwar. Book Part Arctic Climate change Oxford University Press (via Crossref) Arctic 441 472
institution Open Polar
collection Oxford University Press (via Crossref)
op_collection_id croxfordunivpr
language unknown
description Abstract The twenty-first century terrain offers two broad types of uncertainties: those related to traditional forms of power (military, territory, demographics, and wealth), and those having to do with nontraditional forms related to intelligence (capacities to learn, whether through a traditional intelligence system or not). With respect to the former, the United States, Russia, China, and Europe will remain the principal great powers coping with their conflicting interests, changing power relationships and the effects of climate change, such as mass migration and a warming Arctic. The information revolution—the second basket of uncertainties—has affected states’ relative capacities to manage instability and disorder. The rapidly advancing, intelligence-based forms of power will allow hacker-enabled nonstate actors and wealthy corporations such as Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Alibaba to influence international politics at an unprecedented scale. They will vie with traditional intelligence services over control of competitive learning, and will punch above their weight as they buy and sell intelligence services to states. Countries that foster innovation and private-sector alliances will likely gain intelligence advantages over others. Without wise pursuit and careful management of such alliances, however, authoritarians will have growing capacities for social and political influence, deception, and cyberwar.
format Book Part
author Sims, Jennifer E.
spellingShingle Sims, Jennifer E.
The Twenty-First-Century Terrain of Uncertainty
author_facet Sims, Jennifer E.
author_sort Sims, Jennifer E.
title The Twenty-First-Century Terrain of Uncertainty
title_short The Twenty-First-Century Terrain of Uncertainty
title_full The Twenty-First-Century Terrain of Uncertainty
title_fullStr The Twenty-First-Century Terrain of Uncertainty
title_full_unstemmed The Twenty-First-Century Terrain of Uncertainty
title_sort twenty-first-century terrain of uncertainty
publisher Oxford University PressNew York
publishDate 2022
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197508046.003.0014
https://academic.oup.com/book/chapter-pdf/47120853/oso-9780197508046-chapter-14.pdf
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
Climate change
genre_facet Arctic
Climate change
op_source Decision Advantage
page 441-472
ISBN 0197508049 9780197508046 9780197508077
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197508046.003.0014
container_start_page 441
op_container_end_page 472
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