Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems
Abstract Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportun...
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/77/4/1573/33513216/fsz173.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 2024-09-15T17:57:56+00:00 Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems Planque, Benjamin Mullon, Christian Griffith, Gary Research Council of Norway Nansen Legacy Norwegian Institute of Marine Research 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/77/4/1573/33513216/fsz173.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 77, issue 4, page 1573-1588 ISSN 1095-9289 journal-article 2019 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 2024-07-15T04:25:34Z Abstract Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportunity to resolve a situation of mutual misunderstanding between scientists and non-scientists about uncertainties and predictability in natural systems. Our proposition is that this issue can be addressed in an original way which involves modelling based on the principles of chance and necessity (CaN). We outline the conceptual and mathematical principles of CaN models and present an application of the model to the Barents Sea food-web. Because CaN models rely on concepts easily grasped by all actors, because they are explicit about knowns and unknowns and because the interpretation of their results is simple without being prescriptive, they can be used in a context of participatory management. We propose that, three decades after the emergence of chaos theories, CaN can be a practical step to reconcile scientists and non-scientists around the modelling of structurally and dynamically complex natural systems, and significantly contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Oxford University Press ICES Journal of Marine Science 77 4 1573 1588 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportunity to resolve a situation of mutual misunderstanding between scientists and non-scientists about uncertainties and predictability in natural systems. Our proposition is that this issue can be addressed in an original way which involves modelling based on the principles of chance and necessity (CaN). We outline the conceptual and mathematical principles of CaN models and present an application of the model to the Barents Sea food-web. Because CaN models rely on concepts easily grasped by all actors, because they are explicit about knowns and unknowns and because the interpretation of their results is simple without being prescriptive, they can be used in a context of participatory management. We propose that, three decades after the emergence of chaos theories, CaN can be a practical step to reconcile scientists and non-scientists around the modelling of structurally and dynamically complex natural systems, and significantly contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management. |
author2 |
Griffith, Gary Research Council of Norway Nansen Legacy Norwegian Institute of Marine Research |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Planque, Benjamin Mullon, Christian |
spellingShingle |
Planque, Benjamin Mullon, Christian Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
author_facet |
Planque, Benjamin Mullon, Christian |
author_sort |
Planque, Benjamin |
title |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_short |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_full |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_fullStr |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_sort |
modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/77/4/1573/33513216/fsz173.pdf |
genre |
Barents Sea |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 77, issue 4, page 1573-1588 ISSN 1095-9289 |
op_rights |
https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
77 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1573 |
op_container_end_page |
1588 |
_version_ |
1810434153567485952 |