Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach
Abstract The stock–recruitment relationship is the basis of any stock prediction and thus fundamental for fishery management. Traditional parametric stock–recruitment models often poorly fit empirical data, nevertheless they are still the rule in fish stock assessment procedures. We here apply a mul...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2019
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz113 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/77/4/1492/33513182/fsz113.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsz113 2024-06-23T07:51:03+00:00 Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Cormon, Xochitl Werner, Karl M Deyle, Ethan Sugihara, George Möllmann, Christian Griffith, Gary MARmaED MARine MAnagement and Ecosystem Dynamics European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme Marie Skłodowska-Curie Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany CLIMA Ministry of Foreign Affairs Norway Department of Defence National Science Foundation NSF-ABI-Innovation 2019 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz113 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/77/4/1492/33513182/fsz113.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 77, issue 4, page 1492-1502 ISSN 1095-9289 journal-article 2019 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz113 2024-06-04T06:10:03Z Abstract The stock–recruitment relationship is the basis of any stock prediction and thus fundamental for fishery management. Traditional parametric stock–recruitment models often poorly fit empirical data, nevertheless they are still the rule in fish stock assessment procedures. We here apply a multi-model approach to predict recruitment of 20 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks as a function of adult biomass and environmental variables. We compare the traditional Ricker model with two non-parametric approaches: (i) the stochastic cusp model from catastrophe theory and (ii) multivariate simplex projections, based on attractor state-space reconstruction. We show that the performance of each model is contingent on the historical dynamics of individual stocks, and that stocks which experienced abrupt and state-dependent dynamics are best modelled using non-parametric approaches. These dynamics are pervasive in Western stocks highlighting a geographical distinction between cod stocks, which have implications for their recovery potential. Furthermore, the addition of environmental variables always improved the models’ predictive power indicating that they should be considered in stock assessment and management routines. Using our multi-model approach, we demonstrate that we should be more flexible when modelling recruitment and tailor our approaches to the dynamical properties of each individual stock. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua Oxford University Press ICES Journal of Marine Science 77 4 1492 1502 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The stock–recruitment relationship is the basis of any stock prediction and thus fundamental for fishery management. Traditional parametric stock–recruitment models often poorly fit empirical data, nevertheless they are still the rule in fish stock assessment procedures. We here apply a multi-model approach to predict recruitment of 20 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks as a function of adult biomass and environmental variables. We compare the traditional Ricker model with two non-parametric approaches: (i) the stochastic cusp model from catastrophe theory and (ii) multivariate simplex projections, based on attractor state-space reconstruction. We show that the performance of each model is contingent on the historical dynamics of individual stocks, and that stocks which experienced abrupt and state-dependent dynamics are best modelled using non-parametric approaches. These dynamics are pervasive in Western stocks highlighting a geographical distinction between cod stocks, which have implications for their recovery potential. Furthermore, the addition of environmental variables always improved the models’ predictive power indicating that they should be considered in stock assessment and management routines. Using our multi-model approach, we demonstrate that we should be more flexible when modelling recruitment and tailor our approaches to the dynamical properties of each individual stock. |
author2 |
Griffith, Gary MARmaED MARine MAnagement and Ecosystem Dynamics European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme Marie Skłodowska-Curie Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany CLIMA Ministry of Foreign Affairs Norway Department of Defence National Science Foundation NSF-ABI-Innovation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Cormon, Xochitl Werner, Karl M Deyle, Ethan Sugihara, George Möllmann, Christian |
spellingShingle |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Cormon, Xochitl Werner, Karl M Deyle, Ethan Sugihara, George Möllmann, Christian Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach |
author_facet |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Cormon, Xochitl Werner, Karl M Deyle, Ethan Sugihara, George Möllmann, Christian |
author_sort |
Sguotti, Camilla |
title |
Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach |
title_short |
Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach |
title_full |
Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach |
title_fullStr |
Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach |
title_sort |
non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz113 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/77/4/1492/33513182/fsz113.pdf |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 77, issue 4, page 1492-1502 ISSN 1095-9289 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz113 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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77 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1492 |
op_container_end_page |
1502 |
_version_ |
1802642054925254656 |