Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada
Abstract Resource managers need climate adaptation tools. We build on a popular tool, the climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA), to identify vulnerable marine species. Only warming was considered, as warming is expected to have earlier impacts in the offshore than other climate drivers, and...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2015
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv022 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/72/6/1731/31227101/fsv022.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsv022 2024-06-23T07:51:07+00:00 Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada Stortini, Christine H. Shackell, Nancy L. Tyedmers, Peter Beazley, Karen 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv022 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/72/6/1731/31227101/fsv022.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 72, issue 6, page 1731-1743 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 journal-article 2015 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv022 2024-06-11T04:18:52Z Abstract Resource managers need climate adaptation tools. We build on a popular tool, the climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA), to identify vulnerable marine species. Only warming was considered, as warming is expected to have earlier impacts in the offshore than other climate drivers, and projections of other climate drivers are not well developed. For this reason, we coin our generalized, semi-quantitative method the “Vulnerability to Projected Warming Assessment” (VPWA) as opposed to using the broader term, CCVA. We refine the typical “exposure” component to be a function of gain/loss of thermal habitat at multiple life stages. We also build on the traditional logic approach of CCVAs. We produce scores for each species, and use a null distribution through Monte Carlo simulations to identify the most vulnerable species. We evaluate the vulnerability of 33 fish and invertebrate species, on the scale of the Scotian Shelf, Canada, to two warming scenarios, mild and severe, based on regional trends and projections. At smaller spatial scales, we evaluate populations of a subset of these species. Populations in the southwest portion of the domain are found to be more vulnerable than those in the northeast. Overall, our results indicate that 45% of populations may be vulnerable under a severe (+3°C) warming scenario, including currently endangered, threatened, and commercial populations (e.g. southwestern Atlantic cod, Smooth skate, Snow crab), while only one species has a relatively high vulnerability score under the mild (+0.7°C) scenario (Moustache sculpin). Populations triaged by relative vulnerability to regional warming should help managers prioritize resources and identify knowledge gaps. For this reason, and for its biological and ecological underpinnings, our method has broad relevance within the marine science and management field. As more information become available, our VPWA can be used as a stepping-stone in the continued development of CCVA methods. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Snow crab Oxford University Press Canada ICES Journal of Marine Science 72 6 1731 1743 |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Resource managers need climate adaptation tools. We build on a popular tool, the climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA), to identify vulnerable marine species. Only warming was considered, as warming is expected to have earlier impacts in the offshore than other climate drivers, and projections of other climate drivers are not well developed. For this reason, we coin our generalized, semi-quantitative method the “Vulnerability to Projected Warming Assessment” (VPWA) as opposed to using the broader term, CCVA. We refine the typical “exposure” component to be a function of gain/loss of thermal habitat at multiple life stages. We also build on the traditional logic approach of CCVAs. We produce scores for each species, and use a null distribution through Monte Carlo simulations to identify the most vulnerable species. We evaluate the vulnerability of 33 fish and invertebrate species, on the scale of the Scotian Shelf, Canada, to two warming scenarios, mild and severe, based on regional trends and projections. At smaller spatial scales, we evaluate populations of a subset of these species. Populations in the southwest portion of the domain are found to be more vulnerable than those in the northeast. Overall, our results indicate that 45% of populations may be vulnerable under a severe (+3°C) warming scenario, including currently endangered, threatened, and commercial populations (e.g. southwestern Atlantic cod, Smooth skate, Snow crab), while only one species has a relatively high vulnerability score under the mild (+0.7°C) scenario (Moustache sculpin). Populations triaged by relative vulnerability to regional warming should help managers prioritize resources and identify knowledge gaps. For this reason, and for its biological and ecological underpinnings, our method has broad relevance within the marine science and management field. As more information become available, our VPWA can be used as a stepping-stone in the continued development of CCVA methods. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stortini, Christine H. Shackell, Nancy L. Tyedmers, Peter Beazley, Karen |
spellingShingle |
Stortini, Christine H. Shackell, Nancy L. Tyedmers, Peter Beazley, Karen Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada |
author_facet |
Stortini, Christine H. Shackell, Nancy L. Tyedmers, Peter Beazley, Karen |
author_sort |
Stortini, Christine H. |
title |
Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada |
title_short |
Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada |
title_full |
Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada |
title_fullStr |
Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada |
title_sort |
assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the scotian shelf, canada |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv022 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/72/6/1731/31227101/fsv022.pdf |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
atlantic cod Snow crab |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Snow crab |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 72, issue 6, page 1731-1743 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv022 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
72 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1731 |
op_container_end_page |
1743 |
_version_ |
1802642110853152768 |