Fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data
Abstract We estimate temporal variation in fecundity, the reproduction rate, for Barents Sea and Greenland Sea harp seals using a state–space approach. A stochastic process model for fecundity is integrated with an age-structured population dynamics model and fit to available data for these two harp...
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2014
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu195 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/72/5/1462/31228246/fsu195.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsu195 2023-09-26T15:16:30+02:00 Fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data Øigård, Tor Arne Skaug, Hans J. 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu195 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/72/5/1462/31228246/fsu195.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 72, issue 5, page 1462-1469 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography journal-article 2014 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu195 2023-08-25T11:33:37Z Abstract We estimate temporal variation in fecundity, the reproduction rate, for Barents Sea and Greenland Sea harp seals using a state–space approach. A stochastic process model for fecundity is integrated with an age-structured population dynamics model and fit to available data for these two harp seal populations. Owing to scarceness of data, it is necessary to “borrow strength” from the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population in form of prior distributions on autocorrelation and variance in fecundity. Comparison is made to a simpler deterministic population dynamics model. The state–space model is more flexible and is able to account for the variations in the data. For Barents Sea harp seals, the state–space model gives a higher estimate of current population size but also a much higher associated uncertainty. In the Greenland Sea, the differences between the stochastic and deterministic models are much smaller. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Greenland Greenland Sea Harp Seal Northwest Atlantic Oxford University Press (via Crossref) Barents Sea Greenland ICES Journal of Marine Science 72 5 1462 1469 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Oxford University Press (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography Øigård, Tor Arne Skaug, Hans J. Fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data |
topic_facet |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
description |
Abstract We estimate temporal variation in fecundity, the reproduction rate, for Barents Sea and Greenland Sea harp seals using a state–space approach. A stochastic process model for fecundity is integrated with an age-structured population dynamics model and fit to available data for these two harp seal populations. Owing to scarceness of data, it is necessary to “borrow strength” from the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population in form of prior distributions on autocorrelation and variance in fecundity. Comparison is made to a simpler deterministic population dynamics model. The state–space model is more flexible and is able to account for the variations in the data. For Barents Sea harp seals, the state–space model gives a higher estimate of current population size but also a much higher associated uncertainty. In the Greenland Sea, the differences between the stochastic and deterministic models are much smaller. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Øigård, Tor Arne Skaug, Hans J. |
author_facet |
Øigård, Tor Arne Skaug, Hans J. |
author_sort |
Øigård, Tor Arne |
title |
Fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data |
title_short |
Fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data |
title_full |
Fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data |
title_fullStr |
Fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data |
title_sort |
fitting state–space models to seal populations with scarce data |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu195 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/72/5/1462/31228246/fsu195.pdf |
geographic |
Barents Sea Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea Greenland |
genre |
Barents Sea Greenland Greenland Sea Harp Seal Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Greenland Greenland Sea Harp Seal Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 72, issue 5, page 1462-1469 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsu195 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
72 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1462 |
op_container_end_page |
1469 |
_version_ |
1778137684403814400 |