Evaluating the impact of buffers to account for scientific uncertainty when setting TACs: application to red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska

• Published in: ICES Journal of Marine Science
• Main Authors: Punt, André E., Siddeek, M. S. M., Garber-Yonts, Brian, Dalton, Michael, Rugolo, Louis, Stram, Diana, Turnock, Benjamin J., Zheng, Jie
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford University Press (OUP) 2012
• Subjects: Paralithodes camtschaticus; Red king crab; Alaska
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fss047; http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/69/4/624/29143684/fss047.pdf

Abstract Punt, A. E., Siddeek, M. S. M., Garber-Yonts, B., Dalton, M., Rugolo, L., Stram, D., Turnock, B. J., and Zheng, J. 2012. Evaluating the impact of buffers to account for scientific uncertainty when setting TACs: application to red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 624–634. Increasingly, scientific uncertainty is being accounted for in fisheries management by implementing an uncertainty buffer, i.e. a difference between the limit catch level given perfect information and the set catch. An approach based on simulation is outlined, which can be used to evaluate the impact of different buffers on short- and long-term catches, discounted revenue, the probability of overfishing (i.e. the catch exceeding the true, but unknown, limit catch), and the stock becoming overfished (i.e. for crab, mature male biomass, MMB, dropping below one-half of the MMB corresponding to maximum sustainable yield). This approach can be applied when only a fraction of the uncertainty related to estimating the limit catch level is quantified through stock assessments. The approach is applied for illustrative purposes to the fishery for red king crab, Paralithodes camtschaticus, in Bristol Bay, AK.