Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change
Abstract Mueter, F. J., Bond, N. A., Ianelli, J. N., and Hollowed, A. B. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1284–1296. A statistical model is developed to link...
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2011
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/6/1284/29142006/fsr022.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsr022 2024-06-23T07:51:44+00:00 Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change Mueter, Franz J. Bond, Nicholas A. Ianelli, James N. Hollowed, Anne B. 2011 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/6/1284/29142006/fsr022.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 68, issue 6, page 1284-1296 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 journal-article 2011 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022 2024-06-04T06:13:45Z Abstract Mueter, F. J., Bond, N. A., Ianelli, J. N., and Hollowed, A. B. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1284–1296. A statistical model is developed to link recruitment of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) to variability in late summer sea surface temperatures and to the biomass of major predators. The model is based on recent advances in the understanding of pollock recruitment, which suggest that warm spring conditions enhance the survival of early larvae, but high temperatures in late summer and autumn are associated with poor feeding conditions for young-of-year pollock and reduced recruitment in the following year. A statistical downscaling approach is used to generate an ensemble of late summer temperature forecasts through 2050, based on a range of IPCC climate projections. These forecasts are used to simulate future recruitment within an age-structured stock projection model that accounts for density-dependent effects (stock–recruitment relationship), the estimated effects of temperature and predation, and associated uncertainties. On average, recruitment in 2040–2050 should expectedly decline by 32–58% relative to a random recruitment scenario, depending on assumptions about the temperature relationship, the magnitude of density-dependence, and future changes in predator biomass. The approach illustrated here can be used to evaluate the performance of different management strategies and provide long-term strategic advice to managers confronted with a rapidly changing climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea Theragra chalcogramma Oxford University Press Bering Sea ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 6 1284 1296 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Mueter, F. J., Bond, N. A., Ianelli, J. N., and Hollowed, A. B. 2011. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1284–1296. A statistical model is developed to link recruitment of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) to variability in late summer sea surface temperatures and to the biomass of major predators. The model is based on recent advances in the understanding of pollock recruitment, which suggest that warm spring conditions enhance the survival of early larvae, but high temperatures in late summer and autumn are associated with poor feeding conditions for young-of-year pollock and reduced recruitment in the following year. A statistical downscaling approach is used to generate an ensemble of late summer temperature forecasts through 2050, based on a range of IPCC climate projections. These forecasts are used to simulate future recruitment within an age-structured stock projection model that accounts for density-dependent effects (stock–recruitment relationship), the estimated effects of temperature and predation, and associated uncertainties. On average, recruitment in 2040–2050 should expectedly decline by 32–58% relative to a random recruitment scenario, depending on assumptions about the temperature relationship, the magnitude of density-dependence, and future changes in predator biomass. The approach illustrated here can be used to evaluate the performance of different management strategies and provide long-term strategic advice to managers confronted with a rapidly changing climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mueter, Franz J. Bond, Nicholas A. Ianelli, James N. Hollowed, Anne B. |
spellingShingle |
Mueter, Franz J. Bond, Nicholas A. Ianelli, James N. Hollowed, Anne B. Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change |
author_facet |
Mueter, Franz J. Bond, Nicholas A. Ianelli, James N. Hollowed, Anne B. |
author_sort |
Mueter, Franz J. |
title |
Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change |
title_short |
Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change |
title_full |
Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change |
title_fullStr |
Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change |
title_sort |
expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern bering sea under future climate change |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/6/1284/29142006/fsr022.pdf |
geographic |
Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea |
genre |
Bering Sea Theragra chalcogramma |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea Theragra chalcogramma |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 68, issue 6, page 1284-1296 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr022 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
68 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1284 |
op_container_end_page |
1296 |
_version_ |
1802642872074240000 |