Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank
Abstract Gröger, J. P., and Fogarty, M. J. 2011. Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . Climatic influences on Georges Bank cod recruitment were investigated using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as an index of a...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Oxford University Press (OUP)
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/3/592/29139450/fsq196.pdf |
id |
croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 2024-04-28T08:19:28+00:00 Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank Gröger, Joachim P. Fogarty, Michael J. 2011 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/3/592/29139450/fsq196.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 68, issue 3, page 592-602 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography journal-article 2011 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 2024-04-09T07:54:18Z Abstract Gröger, J. P., and Fogarty, M. J. 2011. Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . Climatic influences on Georges Bank cod recruitment were investigated using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as an index of atmospheric variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as an index of sea surface temperature. A quantitative approach based on a simple Cushing-type stock–recruitment model was developed and extended to include climate influences using the technique of generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX modelling). This allowed the autoregressive nature of the interacting exogenous and endogenous processes to be taken into account. Based on two information criteria, the resulting best transfer function contains winter NAO with a lag of 3 years, annual AMO with a lag of 1 year (both as exogenous climate factors), loge(spawning-stock biomass) as a structural model component, plus two autoregressive parameters. The model is characterized by the smallest information criteria, 92% of explained recruitment variation (vs. 55% from the simple Cushing-type model), excellent forecasting behaviour, and all model assumptions being fulfilled. It is proposed that the model's recruitment hindcasts (ex post forecasts) and forecasts be incorporated into stock and risk assessments as well as management strategy evaluations, either as a climate-induced recruitment index for projections or as real forecasts to establish sustainable cod fisheries on Georges Bank conditioned by climate as a forcing factor. Article in Journal/Newspaper Gadus morhua North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Oxford University Press ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 3 592 602 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Oxford University Press |
op_collection_id |
croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography Gröger, Joachim P. Fogarty, Michael J. Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
topic_facet |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
description |
Abstract Gröger, J. P., and Fogarty, M. J. 2011. Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . Climatic influences on Georges Bank cod recruitment were investigated using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as an index of atmospheric variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as an index of sea surface temperature. A quantitative approach based on a simple Cushing-type stock–recruitment model was developed and extended to include climate influences using the technique of generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX modelling). This allowed the autoregressive nature of the interacting exogenous and endogenous processes to be taken into account. Based on two information criteria, the resulting best transfer function contains winter NAO with a lag of 3 years, annual AMO with a lag of 1 year (both as exogenous climate factors), loge(spawning-stock biomass) as a structural model component, plus two autoregressive parameters. The model is characterized by the smallest information criteria, 92% of explained recruitment variation (vs. 55% from the simple Cushing-type model), excellent forecasting behaviour, and all model assumptions being fulfilled. It is proposed that the model's recruitment hindcasts (ex post forecasts) and forecasts be incorporated into stock and risk assessments as well as management strategy evaluations, either as a climate-induced recruitment index for projections or as real forecasts to establish sustainable cod fisheries on Georges Bank conditioned by climate as a forcing factor. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gröger, Joachim P. Fogarty, Michael J. |
author_facet |
Gröger, Joachim P. Fogarty, Michael J. |
author_sort |
Gröger, Joachim P. |
title |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_short |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_full |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_fullStr |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_full_unstemmed |
Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank |
title_sort |
broad-scale climate influences on cod (gadus morhua) recruitment on georges bank |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/3/592/29139450/fsq196.pdf |
genre |
Gadus morhua North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Gadus morhua North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 68, issue 3, page 592-602 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq196 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
68 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
592 |
op_container_end_page |
602 |
_version_ |
1797582957274202112 |