Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary
Abstract Gårdmark, A., Nielsen, A., Floeter, J., and Möllmann, C. 2011. Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 212–220. Precautionary management for fish stocks in need of recovery requir...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq158 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/1/212/29139612/fsq158.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsq158 2024-09-15T18:07:21+00:00 Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary Gårdmark, Anna Nielsen, Anders Floeter, Jens Möllmann, Christian 2010 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq158 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/1/212/29139612/fsq158.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 68, issue 1, page 212-220 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 journal-article 2010 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq158 2024-08-27T04:17:53Z Abstract Gårdmark, A., Nielsen, A., Floeter, J., and Möllmann, C. 2011. Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 212–220. Precautionary management for fish stocks in need of recovery requires that likely stock increases can be distinguished from model artefacts and that the uncertainty of stock status can be handled. Yet, ICES stock assessments are predominantly deterministic and many EC management plans are designed for deterministic advice. Using the eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) stock as an example, we show how deterministic scientific advice can lead to illusive certainty of a rapid stock recovery and management decisions taken in unawareness of large uncertainties in stock status. By (i) performing sensitivity analyses of key assessment model assumptions, (ii) quantifying the uncertainty of the estimates due to data uncertainty, and (iii) developing alternative stock and ecosystem indicators, we demonstrate that estimates of recent fishing mortality and recruitment of this stock were highly uncertain and show that these uncertainties are crucial when combined with management plans based on fixed reference points of fishing mortality. We therefore call for fisheries management that does not neglect uncertainty. To this end, we outline a four-step approach to handle uncertainty of stock status in advice and management. We argue that it is time to use these four steps towards an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management. Article in Journal/Newspaper Gadus morhua Oxford University Press ICES Journal of Marine Science 68 1 212 220 |
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Abstract Gårdmark, A., Nielsen, A., Floeter, J., and Möllmann, C. 2011. Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 212–220. Precautionary management for fish stocks in need of recovery requires that likely stock increases can be distinguished from model artefacts and that the uncertainty of stock status can be handled. Yet, ICES stock assessments are predominantly deterministic and many EC management plans are designed for deterministic advice. Using the eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) stock as an example, we show how deterministic scientific advice can lead to illusive certainty of a rapid stock recovery and management decisions taken in unawareness of large uncertainties in stock status. By (i) performing sensitivity analyses of key assessment model assumptions, (ii) quantifying the uncertainty of the estimates due to data uncertainty, and (iii) developing alternative stock and ecosystem indicators, we demonstrate that estimates of recent fishing mortality and recruitment of this stock were highly uncertain and show that these uncertainties are crucial when combined with management plans based on fixed reference points of fishing mortality. We therefore call for fisheries management that does not neglect uncertainty. To this end, we outline a four-step approach to handle uncertainty of stock status in advice and management. We argue that it is time to use these four steps towards an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gårdmark, Anna Nielsen, Anders Floeter, Jens Möllmann, Christian |
spellingShingle |
Gårdmark, Anna Nielsen, Anders Floeter, Jens Möllmann, Christian Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary |
author_facet |
Gårdmark, Anna Nielsen, Anders Floeter, Jens Möllmann, Christian |
author_sort |
Gårdmark, Anna |
title |
Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary |
title_short |
Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary |
title_full |
Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary |
title_fullStr |
Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary |
title_full_unstemmed |
Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary |
title_sort |
depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq158 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/68/1/212/29139612/fsq158.pdf |
genre |
Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
Gadus morhua |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 68, issue 1, page 212-220 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsq158 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
68 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
212 |
op_container_end_page |
220 |
_version_ |
1810444724566228992 |