Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod
Abstract Mantzouni, I., Sørensen, H., O'Hara, R. B., and MacKenzie, B. R. 2010. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 833–855. Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ec...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/67/5/833/29137207/fsp291.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 2023-12-31T10:04:35+01:00 Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod Mantzouni, Irene Sørensen, Helle O'Hara, Robert B. MacKenzie, Brian R. 2010 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/67/5/833/29137207/fsp291.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 67, issue 5, page 833-855 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography journal-article 2010 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 2023-12-06T09:02:19Z Abstract Mantzouni, I., Sørensen, H., O'Hara, R. B., and MacKenzie, B. R. 2010. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 833–855. Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua North Atlantic Oxford University Press (via Crossref) ICES Journal of Marine Science 67 5 833 855 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography Mantzouni, Irene Sørensen, Helle O'Hara, Robert B. MacKenzie, Brian R. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
topic_facet |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
description |
Abstract Mantzouni, I., Sørensen, H., O'Hara, R. B., and MacKenzie, B. R. 2010. Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 833–855. Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mantzouni, Irene Sørensen, Helle O'Hara, Robert B. MacKenzie, Brian R. |
author_facet |
Mantzouni, Irene Sørensen, Helle O'Hara, Robert B. MacKenzie, Brian R. |
author_sort |
Mantzouni, Irene |
title |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_short |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_full |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_fullStr |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod |
title_sort |
hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of north atlantic cod |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/67/5/833/29137207/fsp291.pdf |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua North Atlantic |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 67, issue 5, page 833-855 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsp291 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
67 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
833 |
op_container_end_page |
855 |
_version_ |
1786834682808107008 |