Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters
Abstract As climate change shifts marine species distribution and abundance worldwide, projecting local changes over decadal scales may be an adaptive strategy for managers and industry. In Iceland, one of the top fish-producing nations globally, long-term monitoring enables model simulations of gro...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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2021
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab230 https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/78/10/3793/41772602/fsab230.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsab230 2023-09-26T15:19:22+02:00 Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters Mason, Julia G Woods, Pamela J Thorlacius, Magnús Guðnason, Kristinn Saba, Vincent S Sullivan, Patrick J Kleisner, Kristin M Selden, Rebecca David R. and Patricia D. Atkinson Foundation 2021 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab230 https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/78/10/3793/41772602/fsab230.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 78, issue 10, page 3793-3804 ISSN 1054-3139 1095-9289 Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography journal-article 2021 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab230 2023-08-25T11:33:09Z Abstract As climate change shifts marine species distribution and abundance worldwide, projecting local changes over decadal scales may be an adaptive strategy for managers and industry. In Iceland, one of the top fish-producing nations globally, long-term monitoring enables model simulations of groundfish species habitat distribution. We used generalized additive models to characterize suitable thermal habitat for 51 fish species in Iceland's waters. We projected changes in suitable thermal habitat by midcentury with an ensemble of five general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 6 (CMIP6) and NOAA (CM2.6) and two scenarios (SSP 5-8.5 and SSP 2-4.5). We found a general northward shift in suitable thermal habitat distribution, with variable regional dynamics among species. Species thermal bias index was a weak predictor of projected thermal habitat change, with warmer-water species more likely to see increases in thermal habitat and southern warm-edge range expansions. While these results isolate the effects of future changes in temperature, providing an indication of suitable thermal habitat, low model explanatory power suggests that additional variables may improve distribution projections. Such projections might serve as guideposts to inform long-term management decisions about regional and species-specific suitability for Iceland's fisheries, infrastructure investment, and risk evaluation under climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Oxford University Press (via Crossref) ICES Journal of Marine Science 78 10 3793 3804 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press (via Crossref) |
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croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
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Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography Mason, Julia G Woods, Pamela J Thorlacius, Magnús Guðnason, Kristinn Saba, Vincent S Sullivan, Patrick J Kleisner, Kristin M Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters |
topic_facet |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
description |
Abstract As climate change shifts marine species distribution and abundance worldwide, projecting local changes over decadal scales may be an adaptive strategy for managers and industry. In Iceland, one of the top fish-producing nations globally, long-term monitoring enables model simulations of groundfish species habitat distribution. We used generalized additive models to characterize suitable thermal habitat for 51 fish species in Iceland's waters. We projected changes in suitable thermal habitat by midcentury with an ensemble of five general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 6 (CMIP6) and NOAA (CM2.6) and two scenarios (SSP 5-8.5 and SSP 2-4.5). We found a general northward shift in suitable thermal habitat distribution, with variable regional dynamics among species. Species thermal bias index was a weak predictor of projected thermal habitat change, with warmer-water species more likely to see increases in thermal habitat and southern warm-edge range expansions. While these results isolate the effects of future changes in temperature, providing an indication of suitable thermal habitat, low model explanatory power suggests that additional variables may improve distribution projections. Such projections might serve as guideposts to inform long-term management decisions about regional and species-specific suitability for Iceland's fisheries, infrastructure investment, and risk evaluation under climate change. |
author2 |
Selden, Rebecca David R. and Patricia D. Atkinson Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mason, Julia G Woods, Pamela J Thorlacius, Magnús Guðnason, Kristinn Saba, Vincent S Sullivan, Patrick J Kleisner, Kristin M |
author_facet |
Mason, Julia G Woods, Pamela J Thorlacius, Magnús Guðnason, Kristinn Saba, Vincent S Sullivan, Patrick J Kleisner, Kristin M |
author_sort |
Mason, Julia G |
title |
Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters |
title_short |
Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters |
title_full |
Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters |
title_fullStr |
Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in Iceland's waters |
title_sort |
projecting climate-driven shifts in demersal fish thermal habitat in iceland's waters |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab230 https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/78/10/3793/41772602/fsab230.pdf |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 78, issue 10, page 3793-3804 ISSN 1054-3139 1095-9289 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab230 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
78 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3793 |
op_container_end_page |
3804 |
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1778142632697921536 |