Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea
Abstract Crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea support some of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, but their future productivity and distribution are uncertain. We explore observed changes in the productivity and distribution for snow crab, Tanner crab, and Bristol Bay red king cr...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2020
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/78/2/502/38696117/fsaa140.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 2024-06-23T07:50:31+00:00 Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea Szuwalski, Cody Cheng, Wei Foy, Robert Hermann, Albert J Hollowed, Anne Holsman, Kirstin Lee, Jiwoo Stockhausen, William Zheng, Jie Bartolino, Valerio NOAA National Marine Fisheries programmes provided U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/78/2/502/38696117/fsaa140.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 78, issue 2, page 502-515 ISSN 1054-3139 1095-9289 journal-article 2020 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 2024-06-04T06:10:55Z Abstract Crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea support some of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, but their future productivity and distribution are uncertain. We explore observed changes in the productivity and distribution for snow crab, Tanner crab, and Bristol Bay red king crab. We link historical indices of environmental variation and predator biomass with observed time series of centroids of abundance and extent of crab stock distribution; we also fit stock–recruit curves including environmental indices for each stock. We then project these relationships under forcing from global climate models to forecast potential productivity and distribution scenarios. Our results suggest that the productivity of snow crab is negatively related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and positively related to ice cover; Tanner crab’s productivity and distribution are negatively associated with cod biomass and sea surface temperature. Aspects of red king crab distribution and productivity appear to be related to bottom temperature, ice cover, the AO, and/or cod biomass. Projecting these relationships forward with available forecasts suggests that Tanner crab may become more productive and shift further offshore, red king crab distribution may contract and move north, and productivity may decrease for snow crab as the population contracts northward. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Bering Sea Climate change Red king crab Snow crab Tanner crab Oxford University Press Arctic Bering Sea ICES Journal of Marine Science 78 2 502 515 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Crab populations in the eastern Bering Sea support some of the most valuable fisheries in the United States, but their future productivity and distribution are uncertain. We explore observed changes in the productivity and distribution for snow crab, Tanner crab, and Bristol Bay red king crab. We link historical indices of environmental variation and predator biomass with observed time series of centroids of abundance and extent of crab stock distribution; we also fit stock–recruit curves including environmental indices for each stock. We then project these relationships under forcing from global climate models to forecast potential productivity and distribution scenarios. Our results suggest that the productivity of snow crab is negatively related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and positively related to ice cover; Tanner crab’s productivity and distribution are negatively associated with cod biomass and sea surface temperature. Aspects of red king crab distribution and productivity appear to be related to bottom temperature, ice cover, the AO, and/or cod biomass. Projecting these relationships forward with available forecasts suggests that Tanner crab may become more productive and shift further offshore, red king crab distribution may contract and move north, and productivity may decrease for snow crab as the population contracts northward. |
author2 |
Bartolino, Valerio NOAA National Marine Fisheries programmes provided U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Szuwalski, Cody Cheng, Wei Foy, Robert Hermann, Albert J Hollowed, Anne Holsman, Kirstin Lee, Jiwoo Stockhausen, William Zheng, Jie |
spellingShingle |
Szuwalski, Cody Cheng, Wei Foy, Robert Hermann, Albert J Hollowed, Anne Holsman, Kirstin Lee, Jiwoo Stockhausen, William Zheng, Jie Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
author_facet |
Szuwalski, Cody Cheng, Wei Foy, Robert Hermann, Albert J Hollowed, Anne Holsman, Kirstin Lee, Jiwoo Stockhausen, William Zheng, Jie |
author_sort |
Szuwalski, Cody |
title |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_short |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_full |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_fullStr |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the Bering Sea |
title_sort |
climate change and the future productivity and distribution of crab in the bering sea |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/78/2/502/38696117/fsaa140.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Bering Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Bering Sea |
genre |
Arctic Bering Sea Climate change Red king crab Snow crab Tanner crab |
genre_facet |
Arctic Bering Sea Climate change Red king crab Snow crab Tanner crab |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 78, issue 2, page 502-515 ISSN 1054-3139 1095-9289 |
op_rights |
https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa140 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
78 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
502 |
op_container_end_page |
515 |
_version_ |
1802641418557063168 |