Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE
SUMMARY A large ensemble of ice sheet projections to the end of the 21st century have been compiled within community-based initiatives. These ensembles allow for assessment of uncertainties in projections associated with climate forcing and a wide range of parameters governing ice sheet and shelf dy...
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2023
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad214 https://academic.oup.com/gji/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/gji/ggad214/50504624/ggad214.pdf https://academic.oup.com/gji/article-pdf/235/1/353/50554763/ggad214.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/gji/ggad214 2024-01-21T10:01:36+01:00 Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE Cederberg, Gabriel Jaeger, Nicholas Kiam, Lia Powell, Robert Stoller, Posy Valencic, Natasha Latychev, Konstantin Lickley, Megan Mitrovica, Jerry X Ellen MacArthur Foundation Harvard University 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad214 https://academic.oup.com/gji/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/gji/ggad214/50504624/ggad214.pdf https://academic.oup.com/gji/article-pdf/235/1/353/50554763/ggad214.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model Geophysical Journal International volume 235, issue 1, page 353-365 ISSN 0956-540X 1365-246X Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics journal-article 2023 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad214 2023-12-22T09:41:58Z SUMMARY A large ensemble of ice sheet projections to the end of the 21st century have been compiled within community-based initiatives. These ensembles allow for assessment of uncertainties in projections associated with climate forcing and a wide range of parameters governing ice sheet and shelf dynamics, including ice-ocean interactions. Herein, we compute geographically variable sea level ‘fingerprints’ associated with ∼320 simulations of polar ice sheet projections included in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 and ∼180 projections of glacier mass changes from the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. We find a strong correlation (coefficient > 0.97) between all fingerprints of Greenland Ice Sheet projections when considering a global region outside the near field of the ice sheet. Consistency in the fingerprints for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) projections is much weaker, though correlation coefficients > 0.80 were found for all projections with global mean sea level (GMSL) greater than 10 cm. The far-field variability in the fingerprints associated with the AIS is due in large part to the sea level change driven by Earth rotation changes. The size and position of the AIS on the south pole makes the rotational component of the sea level fingerprint highly sensitive to the geometry of the ice mass flux, a geometry that becomes more consistent as the GMSL associated with the ice sheet projection increases. Finally, the fingerprints of glacier mass flux show an intermediate level of consistency, with contributions from Antarctic glaciers being the primary driver of decorrelation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet South pole South pole Oxford University Press (via Crossref) Antarctic Greenland South Pole The Antarctic Geophysical Journal International 235 1 353 365 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
topic |
Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics |
spellingShingle |
Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics Cederberg, Gabriel Jaeger, Nicholas Kiam, Lia Powell, Robert Stoller, Posy Valencic, Natasha Latychev, Konstantin Lickley, Megan Mitrovica, Jerry X Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE |
topic_facet |
Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics |
description |
SUMMARY A large ensemble of ice sheet projections to the end of the 21st century have been compiled within community-based initiatives. These ensembles allow for assessment of uncertainties in projections associated with climate forcing and a wide range of parameters governing ice sheet and shelf dynamics, including ice-ocean interactions. Herein, we compute geographically variable sea level ‘fingerprints’ associated with ∼320 simulations of polar ice sheet projections included in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 and ∼180 projections of glacier mass changes from the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. We find a strong correlation (coefficient > 0.97) between all fingerprints of Greenland Ice Sheet projections when considering a global region outside the near field of the ice sheet. Consistency in the fingerprints for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) projections is much weaker, though correlation coefficients > 0.80 were found for all projections with global mean sea level (GMSL) greater than 10 cm. The far-field variability in the fingerprints associated with the AIS is due in large part to the sea level change driven by Earth rotation changes. The size and position of the AIS on the south pole makes the rotational component of the sea level fingerprint highly sensitive to the geometry of the ice mass flux, a geometry that becomes more consistent as the GMSL associated with the ice sheet projection increases. Finally, the fingerprints of glacier mass flux show an intermediate level of consistency, with contributions from Antarctic glaciers being the primary driver of decorrelation. |
author2 |
Ellen MacArthur Foundation Harvard University |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cederberg, Gabriel Jaeger, Nicholas Kiam, Lia Powell, Robert Stoller, Posy Valencic, Natasha Latychev, Konstantin Lickley, Megan Mitrovica, Jerry X |
author_facet |
Cederberg, Gabriel Jaeger, Nicholas Kiam, Lia Powell, Robert Stoller, Posy Valencic, Natasha Latychev, Konstantin Lickley, Megan Mitrovica, Jerry X |
author_sort |
Cederberg, Gabriel |
title |
Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE |
title_short |
Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE |
title_full |
Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE |
title_fullStr |
Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100CE |
title_sort |
consistency in the fingerprints of projected sea level change 2015–2100ce |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad214 https://academic.oup.com/gji/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/gji/ggad214/50504624/ggad214.pdf https://academic.oup.com/gji/article-pdf/235/1/353/50554763/ggad214.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland South Pole The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland South Pole The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet South pole South pole |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet South pole South pole |
op_source |
Geophysical Journal International volume 235, issue 1, page 353-365 ISSN 0956-540X 1365-246X |
op_rights |
https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad214 |
container_title |
Geophysical Journal International |
container_volume |
235 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
353 |
op_container_end_page |
365 |
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1788691607289069568 |