Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study
Abstract Aims To use the parametric g-formula to estimate the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) by sex and education under hypothetical interventions on six modifiable risk factors. Methods and results We estimated the risk reduction under hypothetical risk reduction strategies for smoking,...
Published in: | European Journal of Preventive Cardiology |
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2023
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240 https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240/51015846/zwad240.pdf https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/article-pdf/30/16/1791/53049487/zwad240.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240 2024-10-06T13:53:11+00:00 Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study Nilsen, Linn Sharashova, Ekaterina Løchen, Maja-Lisa Danaei, Goodarz Wilsgaard, Tom UiT the Arctic University of Norway 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240 https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240/51015846/zwad240.pdf https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/article-pdf/30/16/1791/53049487/zwad240.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ European Journal of Preventive Cardiology volume 30, issue 16, page 1791-1800 ISSN 2047-4873 2047-4881 journal-article 2023 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240 2024-09-10T04:14:23Z Abstract Aims To use the parametric g-formula to estimate the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) by sex and education under hypothetical interventions on six modifiable risk factors. Methods and results We estimated the risk reduction under hypothetical risk reduction strategies for smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, body mass index, systolic, and diastolic blood pressure in 14 923 women and men (baseline mean age 45.8 years in women and 47.8 years in men) from the population-based Tromsø Study with a maximum of 22 years of follow-up (1994–2016). The estimated risk of AF under no intervention was 6.15% in women and 13.0% in men. This cumulative risk was reduced by 41% (95% confidence interval 17%, 61%) in women and 14% (−7%, 30%) in men under joint interventions on all risk factors. The most effective intervention was lowering body mass index to ≤ 25 kg/m2, leading to a 16% (4%, 25%) lower risk in women and a 14% (6%, 23%) lower risk in men. We found significant sex-differences in the relative risk reduction by sufficient physical activity, leading to a 7% (-4%, 18%) lower risk in women and an 8% (−2%, −13%) increased risk in men. We found no association between the level of education and differences in risk reduction by any of the interventions. Conclusion The population burden of AF could be reduced by modifying lifestyle risk factors. Namely, these modifications could have prevented 41% of AF cases in women and 14% of AF cases in men in the municipality of Tromsø, Norway during a maximum 22-year follow-up period. Article in Journal/Newspaper Tromsø Oxford University Press Norway Tromsø European Journal of Preventive Cardiology |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
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English |
description |
Abstract Aims To use the parametric g-formula to estimate the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) by sex and education under hypothetical interventions on six modifiable risk factors. Methods and results We estimated the risk reduction under hypothetical risk reduction strategies for smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, body mass index, systolic, and diastolic blood pressure in 14 923 women and men (baseline mean age 45.8 years in women and 47.8 years in men) from the population-based Tromsø Study with a maximum of 22 years of follow-up (1994–2016). The estimated risk of AF under no intervention was 6.15% in women and 13.0% in men. This cumulative risk was reduced by 41% (95% confidence interval 17%, 61%) in women and 14% (−7%, 30%) in men under joint interventions on all risk factors. The most effective intervention was lowering body mass index to ≤ 25 kg/m2, leading to a 16% (4%, 25%) lower risk in women and a 14% (6%, 23%) lower risk in men. We found significant sex-differences in the relative risk reduction by sufficient physical activity, leading to a 7% (-4%, 18%) lower risk in women and an 8% (−2%, −13%) increased risk in men. We found no association between the level of education and differences in risk reduction by any of the interventions. Conclusion The population burden of AF could be reduced by modifying lifestyle risk factors. Namely, these modifications could have prevented 41% of AF cases in women and 14% of AF cases in men in the municipality of Tromsø, Norway during a maximum 22-year follow-up period. |
author2 |
UiT the Arctic University of Norway |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nilsen, Linn Sharashova, Ekaterina Løchen, Maja-Lisa Danaei, Goodarz Wilsgaard, Tom |
spellingShingle |
Nilsen, Linn Sharashova, Ekaterina Løchen, Maja-Lisa Danaei, Goodarz Wilsgaard, Tom Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study |
author_facet |
Nilsen, Linn Sharashova, Ekaterina Løchen, Maja-Lisa Danaei, Goodarz Wilsgaard, Tom |
author_sort |
Nilsen, Linn |
title |
Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study |
title_short |
Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study |
title_full |
Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study |
title_fullStr |
Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study |
title_sort |
hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the tromsø study |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240 https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240/51015846/zwad240.pdf https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/article-pdf/30/16/1791/53049487/zwad240.pdf |
geographic |
Norway Tromsø |
geographic_facet |
Norway Tromsø |
genre |
Tromsø |
genre_facet |
Tromsø |
op_source |
European Journal of Preventive Cardiology volume 30, issue 16, page 1791-1800 ISSN 2047-4873 2047-4881 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwad240 |
container_title |
European Journal of Preventive Cardiology |
_version_ |
1812181855940640768 |