Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain
Abstract Conservation status and management priorities are often informed by population trends. Trend estimates can be derived from population surveys or models, but both methods are associated with sources of uncertainty. Many Arctic-breeding shorebirds are thought to be declining based on migratio...
Published in: | The Condor |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2020
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/condor/duaa026 http://academic.oup.com/condor/article-pdf/122/3/duaa026/33735786/duaa026.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1093/condor/duaa026 2024-02-04T09:57:47+01:00 Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain Weiser, Emily L Lanctot, Richard B Brown, Stephen C Gates, H River Bêty, Joël Boldenow, Megan L Brook, Rodney W Brown, Glen S English, Willow B Flemming, Scott A Franks, Samantha E Gilchrist, H Grant Giroux, Marie-Andrée Johnson, Andrew Kendall, Steve Kennedy, Lisa V Koloski, Laura Kwon, Eunbi Lamarre, Jean-François Lank, David B Latty, Christopher J Lecomte, Nicolas Liebezeit, Joseph R McGuire, Rebecca L McKinnon, Laura Nol, Erica Payer, David Perz, Johanna Rausch, Jennie Robards, Martin Saalfeld, Sarah T Senner, Nathan R Smith, Paul A Soloviev, Mikhail Solovyeva, Diana Ward, David H Woodard, Paul F Sandercock, Brett K National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/condor/duaa026 http://academic.oup.com/condor/article-pdf/122/3/duaa026/33735786/duaa026.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) The Condor volume 122, issue 3 ISSN 0010-5422 1938-5129 Animal Science and Zoology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics journal-article 2020 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1093/condor/duaa026 2024-01-05T09:50:45Z Abstract Conservation status and management priorities are often informed by population trends. Trend estimates can be derived from population surveys or models, but both methods are associated with sources of uncertainty. Many Arctic-breeding shorebirds are thought to be declining based on migration and/or overwintering population surveys, but data are lacking to estimate the trends of some shorebird species. In addition, for most species, little is known about the stage(s) at which population bottlenecks occur, such as breeding vs. nonbreeding periods. We used previously published and unpublished estimates of vital rates to develop the first large-scale population models for 6 species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds in North America, including separate estimates for 3 subspecies of Dunlin. We used the models to estimate population trends and identify life stages at which population growth may be limited. Our model for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin agreed with previously published information that the subspecies is severely declining. Our results also linked the decline to the subspecies’ low annual adult survival rate, thus potentially implicating factors during the nonbreeding period in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. However, our trend estimates for all species showed high uncertainty, highlighting the need for more accurate and precise estimates of vital rates. Of the vital rates, annual adult survival had the strongest influence on population trend in all taxa. Improving the accuracy, precision, and spatial and temporal coverage of estimates of vital rates, especially annual adult survival, would improve demographic model-based estimates of population trends and help direct management to regions or seasons where birds are subject to higher mortality. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Dunlin Oxford University Press (via Crossref) Arctic The Condor 122 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Oxford University Press (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
topic |
Animal Science and Zoology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
spellingShingle |
Animal Science and Zoology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Weiser, Emily L Lanctot, Richard B Brown, Stephen C Gates, H River Bêty, Joël Boldenow, Megan L Brook, Rodney W Brown, Glen S English, Willow B Flemming, Scott A Franks, Samantha E Gilchrist, H Grant Giroux, Marie-Andrée Johnson, Andrew Kendall, Steve Kennedy, Lisa V Koloski, Laura Kwon, Eunbi Lamarre, Jean-François Lank, David B Latty, Christopher J Lecomte, Nicolas Liebezeit, Joseph R McGuire, Rebecca L McKinnon, Laura Nol, Erica Payer, David Perz, Johanna Rausch, Jennie Robards, Martin Saalfeld, Sarah T Senner, Nathan R Smith, Paul A Soloviev, Mikhail Solovyeva, Diana Ward, David H Woodard, Paul F Sandercock, Brett K Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain |
topic_facet |
Animal Science and Zoology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics |
description |
Abstract Conservation status and management priorities are often informed by population trends. Trend estimates can be derived from population surveys or models, but both methods are associated with sources of uncertainty. Many Arctic-breeding shorebirds are thought to be declining based on migration and/or overwintering population surveys, but data are lacking to estimate the trends of some shorebird species. In addition, for most species, little is known about the stage(s) at which population bottlenecks occur, such as breeding vs. nonbreeding periods. We used previously published and unpublished estimates of vital rates to develop the first large-scale population models for 6 species of Arctic-breeding shorebirds in North America, including separate estimates for 3 subspecies of Dunlin. We used the models to estimate population trends and identify life stages at which population growth may be limited. Our model for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin agreed with previously published information that the subspecies is severely declining. Our results also linked the decline to the subspecies’ low annual adult survival rate, thus potentially implicating factors during the nonbreeding period in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. However, our trend estimates for all species showed high uncertainty, highlighting the need for more accurate and precise estimates of vital rates. Of the vital rates, annual adult survival had the strongest influence on population trend in all taxa. Improving the accuracy, precision, and spatial and temporal coverage of estimates of vital rates, especially annual adult survival, would improve demographic model-based estimates of population trends and help direct management to regions or seasons where birds are subject to higher mortality. |
author2 |
National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Weiser, Emily L Lanctot, Richard B Brown, Stephen C Gates, H River Bêty, Joël Boldenow, Megan L Brook, Rodney W Brown, Glen S English, Willow B Flemming, Scott A Franks, Samantha E Gilchrist, H Grant Giroux, Marie-Andrée Johnson, Andrew Kendall, Steve Kennedy, Lisa V Koloski, Laura Kwon, Eunbi Lamarre, Jean-François Lank, David B Latty, Christopher J Lecomte, Nicolas Liebezeit, Joseph R McGuire, Rebecca L McKinnon, Laura Nol, Erica Payer, David Perz, Johanna Rausch, Jennie Robards, Martin Saalfeld, Sarah T Senner, Nathan R Smith, Paul A Soloviev, Mikhail Solovyeva, Diana Ward, David H Woodard, Paul F Sandercock, Brett K |
author_facet |
Weiser, Emily L Lanctot, Richard B Brown, Stephen C Gates, H River Bêty, Joël Boldenow, Megan L Brook, Rodney W Brown, Glen S English, Willow B Flemming, Scott A Franks, Samantha E Gilchrist, H Grant Giroux, Marie-Andrée Johnson, Andrew Kendall, Steve Kennedy, Lisa V Koloski, Laura Kwon, Eunbi Lamarre, Jean-François Lank, David B Latty, Christopher J Lecomte, Nicolas Liebezeit, Joseph R McGuire, Rebecca L McKinnon, Laura Nol, Erica Payer, David Perz, Johanna Rausch, Jennie Robards, Martin Saalfeld, Sarah T Senner, Nathan R Smith, Paul A Soloviev, Mikhail Solovyeva, Diana Ward, David H Woodard, Paul F Sandercock, Brett K |
author_sort |
Weiser, Emily L |
title |
Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain |
title_short |
Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain |
title_full |
Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain |
title_fullStr |
Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain |
title_full_unstemmed |
Annual adult survival drives trends in Arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain |
title_sort |
annual adult survival drives trends in arctic-breeding shorebirds but knowledge gaps in other vital rates remain |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/condor/duaa026 http://academic.oup.com/condor/article-pdf/122/3/duaa026/33735786/duaa026.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Dunlin |
genre_facet |
Arctic Dunlin |
op_source |
The Condor volume 122, issue 3 ISSN 0010-5422 1938-5129 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/condor/duaa026 |
container_title |
The Condor |
container_volume |
122 |
container_issue |
3 |
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1789962110707433472 |