Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977?
Abstract Climate regime shifts have recently occurred in the North Pacific (1998–1999) and the Arctic (2000), but the nature of biological reaction to these events is poorly understood. An index of local climate (1960–2005), and data from commercial fishery catches (1960–2004) and from small-mesh tr...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2006.06.003 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/63/8/1386/29125396/63-8-1386.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1016/j.icesjms.2006.06.003 2023-12-31T10:03:38+01:00 Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? Litzow, Michael A. 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2006.06.003 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/63/8/1386/29125396/63-8-1386.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 63, issue 8, page 1386-1396 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography journal-article 2006 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2006.06.003 2023-12-06T08:46:37Z Abstract Climate regime shifts have recently occurred in the North Pacific (1998–1999) and the Arctic (2000), but the nature of biological reaction to these events is poorly understood. An index of local climate (1960–2005), and data from commercial fishery catches (1960–2004) and from small-mesh trawl surveys (1972–2005) are used to assess the impacts of these climate events in the Subarctic Gulf of Alaska. Non-linear regression showed that survey catch composition strongly responded to local climate at lags of 2 and 4 years, providing evidence of rapid ecological response to climate change in the system. A sequential regime shift detection method identified rapid change in local climate, and in survey and commercial catches following the well-documented regime shift to a positive state of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1976/1977. However, the analysis failed to detect the 1998/1999 regime shift in local climate, or in survey or commercial catches. This result is consistent with the view that the 1998/1999 climate regime shift did not represent a reversion to a negative PDO state. Local temperature increased and local sea level pressure decreased in the Gulf of Alaska during the years 2001–2005, consistent with anthropogenic warming and recent spatial reorganization in Arctic climate. There was no evidence of community reorganization following this climate event. Further observation will be required to evaluate the persistence of this new climate pattern, and the nature of community reaction to it. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Subarctic Alaska Oxford University Press (via Crossref) ICES Journal of Marine Science 63 8 1386 1396 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Oxford University Press (via Crossref) |
op_collection_id |
croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography Litzow, Michael A. Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? |
topic_facet |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
description |
Abstract Climate regime shifts have recently occurred in the North Pacific (1998–1999) and the Arctic (2000), but the nature of biological reaction to these events is poorly understood. An index of local climate (1960–2005), and data from commercial fishery catches (1960–2004) and from small-mesh trawl surveys (1972–2005) are used to assess the impacts of these climate events in the Subarctic Gulf of Alaska. Non-linear regression showed that survey catch composition strongly responded to local climate at lags of 2 and 4 years, providing evidence of rapid ecological response to climate change in the system. A sequential regime shift detection method identified rapid change in local climate, and in survey and commercial catches following the well-documented regime shift to a positive state of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1976/1977. However, the analysis failed to detect the 1998/1999 regime shift in local climate, or in survey or commercial catches. This result is consistent with the view that the 1998/1999 climate regime shift did not represent a reversion to a negative PDO state. Local temperature increased and local sea level pressure decreased in the Gulf of Alaska during the years 2001–2005, consistent with anthropogenic warming and recent spatial reorganization in Arctic climate. There was no evidence of community reorganization following this climate event. Further observation will be required to evaluate the persistence of this new climate pattern, and the nature of community reaction to it. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Litzow, Michael A. |
author_facet |
Litzow, Michael A. |
author_sort |
Litzow, Michael A. |
title |
Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? |
title_short |
Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? |
title_full |
Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? |
title_fullStr |
Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? |
title_sort |
climate regime shifts and community reorganization in the gulf of alaska: how do recent shifts compare with 1976/1977? |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2006.06.003 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/63/8/1386/29125396/63-8-1386.pdf |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Subarctic Alaska |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 63, issue 8, page 1386-1396 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2006.06.003 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
63 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1386 |
op_container_end_page |
1396 |
_version_ |
1786824066398683136 |