A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using Bayesian methods
Abstract A new integrated Bayesian framework for making quantitative assessments, predictions, and risk analyses of shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock development is constructed. A biomass dynamic model, based on the logistic function but including an explicit term for cod predation, suggests that the...
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2006
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.09.002 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/63/1/68/29124949/63-1-68.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.09.002 2024-06-23T07:56:00+00:00 A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using Bayesian methods Hvingel, Carsten Kingsley, Michael C.S. 2006 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.09.002 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/63/1/68/29124949/63-1-68.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 63, issue 1, page 68-82 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 journal-article 2006 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.09.002 2024-06-11T04:20:59Z Abstract A new integrated Bayesian framework for making quantitative assessments, predictions, and risk analyses of shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock development is constructed. A biomass dynamic model, based on the logistic function but including an explicit term for cod predation, suggests that the quantity of shrimp consumed by cod could equal that taken by the fishery. The model proved superior to an alternative model in its ability to estimate parameters central to the assessment; the alternative model subsumed cod predation as part of an overall population growth effect without a time trend. Two series of shrimp biomass indices, catch, cod biomass estimates, cod consumption estimates, and prior distributions of model parameters provided information to the models. Process and observation errors were incorporated simultaneously using a state-space modelling framework. A Bayesian approach was used to construct posterior probability distributions of model parameters and derived variables relevant for management advice, including quantification of future risk of transgressing reference points in relation to alternative management options. Article in Journal/Newspaper Pandalus borealis Oxford University Press ICES Journal of Marine Science 63 1 68 82 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
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croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract A new integrated Bayesian framework for making quantitative assessments, predictions, and risk analyses of shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock development is constructed. A biomass dynamic model, based on the logistic function but including an explicit term for cod predation, suggests that the quantity of shrimp consumed by cod could equal that taken by the fishery. The model proved superior to an alternative model in its ability to estimate parameters central to the assessment; the alternative model subsumed cod predation as part of an overall population growth effect without a time trend. Two series of shrimp biomass indices, catch, cod biomass estimates, cod consumption estimates, and prior distributions of model parameters provided information to the models. Process and observation errors were incorporated simultaneously using a state-space modelling framework. A Bayesian approach was used to construct posterior probability distributions of model parameters and derived variables relevant for management advice, including quantification of future risk of transgressing reference points in relation to alternative management options. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hvingel, Carsten Kingsley, Michael C.S. |
spellingShingle |
Hvingel, Carsten Kingsley, Michael C.S. A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using Bayesian methods |
author_facet |
Hvingel, Carsten Kingsley, Michael C.S. |
author_sort |
Hvingel, Carsten |
title |
A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using Bayesian methods |
title_short |
A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using Bayesian methods |
title_full |
A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using Bayesian methods |
title_fullStr |
A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using Bayesian methods |
title_full_unstemmed |
A framework to model shrimp (Pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using Bayesian methods |
title_sort |
framework to model shrimp (pandalus borealis) stock dynamics and to quantify the risk associated with alternative management options, using bayesian methods |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.09.002 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/63/1/68/29124949/63-1-68.pdf |
genre |
Pandalus borealis |
genre_facet |
Pandalus borealis |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 63, issue 1, page 68-82 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.09.002 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
63 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
68 |
op_container_end_page |
82 |
_version_ |
1802648838588071936 |