Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem
Abstract A common problem of existing methods for regime shift detection is their poor performance at the ends of time-series. Consequently, shifts in environmental and biological indices are usually detected long after their actual appearance. A recently introduced method based on sequential t-test...
| Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Oxford University Press (OUP)
2005
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2005.01.013 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/62/3/328/29151856/62-3-328.pdf |
| Summary: | Abstract A common problem of existing methods for regime shift detection is their poor performance at the ends of time-series. Consequently, shifts in environmental and biological indices are usually detected long after their actual appearance. A recently introduced method based on sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) treats all incoming data in real time, signals the possibility of a regime shift as soon as possible, then monitors how perception of the magnitude of the shift changes over time. Results of a STARS application to the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem show how the 1989 and 1998 regime shifts manifest themselves in biotic and abiotic indices in comparison with the 1977 shift. |
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