Provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic
Abstract The paper presents the data, the models, and the approach for the provision of management advice for a high seas mixed stock fishery on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The approach incorporates observation errors, model uncertainty, and considers a possible shift in the productivity of At...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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Language: | English |
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2005
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.10.006 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/62/1/131/29150052/62-1-131.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.10.006 2024-06-23T07:51:12+00:00 Provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic Chaput, G. Legault, C.M. Reddin, D.G. Caron, F. Amiro, P.G. 2005 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.10.006 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/62/1/131/29150052/62-1-131.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 62, issue 1, page 131-143 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 journal-article 2005 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.10.006 2024-06-11T04:17:25Z Abstract The paper presents the data, the models, and the approach for the provision of management advice for a high seas mixed stock fishery on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The approach incorporates observation errors, model uncertainty, and considers a possible shift in the productivity of Atlantic salmon. The risk analysis framework further incorporates uncertainty in the fishery harvest characteristics and presents the catch advice as probabilities of meeting or exceeding the conservation objectives relative to catch options. There is very strong evidence from the analyses that there has been a phase shift in productivity of Atlantic salmon of North American origin in the Northwest Atlantic. The change in productivity likely resulted from a change in marine survival which occurred in the early 1990s and has persisted to date. When the uncertainties in the input data are considered, the most parsimonious models suggest that there has been a shift in absolute abundance independent of variations in the spawner index contributing to the recruitment. There continues to be a large amount of uncertainty in the measures of abundance and population dynamics of Atlantic salmon. Uncertainty in the understanding of population dynamics does not necessarily equate to uncertainty in management advice. If model results suggest that spawning objectives are unattainable even when harvest rates are zero, then any harvest level will either accelerate the rate of decline if the model prediction is correct or diminish the probability of recovery if the model prediction is wrong. Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Northwest Atlantic Salmo salar Oxford University Press ICES Journal of Marine Science 62 1 131 143 |
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Open Polar |
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Oxford University Press |
op_collection_id |
croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract The paper presents the data, the models, and the approach for the provision of management advice for a high seas mixed stock fishery on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The approach incorporates observation errors, model uncertainty, and considers a possible shift in the productivity of Atlantic salmon. The risk analysis framework further incorporates uncertainty in the fishery harvest characteristics and presents the catch advice as probabilities of meeting or exceeding the conservation objectives relative to catch options. There is very strong evidence from the analyses that there has been a phase shift in productivity of Atlantic salmon of North American origin in the Northwest Atlantic. The change in productivity likely resulted from a change in marine survival which occurred in the early 1990s and has persisted to date. When the uncertainties in the input data are considered, the most parsimonious models suggest that there has been a shift in absolute abundance independent of variations in the spawner index contributing to the recruitment. There continues to be a large amount of uncertainty in the measures of abundance and population dynamics of Atlantic salmon. Uncertainty in the understanding of population dynamics does not necessarily equate to uncertainty in management advice. If model results suggest that spawning objectives are unattainable even when harvest rates are zero, then any harvest level will either accelerate the rate of decline if the model prediction is correct or diminish the probability of recovery if the model prediction is wrong. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chaput, G. Legault, C.M. Reddin, D.G. Caron, F. Amiro, P.G. |
spellingShingle |
Chaput, G. Legault, C.M. Reddin, D.G. Caron, F. Amiro, P.G. Provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic |
author_facet |
Chaput, G. Legault, C.M. Reddin, D.G. Caron, F. Amiro, P.G. |
author_sort |
Chaput, G. |
title |
Provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_short |
Provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_full |
Provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northwest Atlantic |
title_sort |
provision of catch advice taking account of non-stationarity in productivity of atlantic salmon (salmo salar l.) in the northwest atlantic |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.10.006 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/62/1/131/29150052/62-1-131.pdf |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Northwest Atlantic Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Northwest Atlantic Salmo salar |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 62, issue 1, page 131-143 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.10.006 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
62 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
131 |
op_container_end_page |
143 |
_version_ |
1802642213468897280 |