Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries
Abstract Most exploitation of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is restricted to “homewater fisheries”, which operate close to or within the rivers of origin of the stocks, but two “distant-water fisheries” are permitted to operate off the west coast of Greenland and in the Norwegian Sea, and take salmo...
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Language: | English |
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Oxford University Press (OUP)
2004
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.08.012 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/61/8/1359/29122514/61-8-1359.pdf |
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croxfordunivpr:10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.08.012 2024-02-11T10:02:08+01:00 Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries Potter, E.C.E. Crozier, W.W. Schön, P-J. Nicholson, M.D. Maxwell, D.L. Prévost, E. Erkinaro, J. Gudbergsson, G. Karlsson, L. Hansen, L.P. MacLean, J.C. Ó Maoiléidigh, N. Prusov, S. 2004 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.08.012 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/61/8/1359/29122514/61-8-1359.pdf en eng Oxford University Press (OUP) ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 61, issue 8, page 1359-1369 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography journal-article 2004 croxfordunivpr https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.08.012 2024-01-12T10:12:09Z Abstract Most exploitation of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is restricted to “homewater fisheries”, which operate close to or within the rivers of origin of the stocks, but two “distant-water fisheries” are permitted to operate off the west coast of Greenland and in the Norwegian Sea, and take salmon from a large number of rivers over a wide geographical area. Providing robust quantitative catch advice for these mixed-stock fisheries depends upon the ability to forecast stock abundance for about 2000 salmon river-stocks around the North Atlantic, more than 1500 of which are in Europe. A “run-reconstruction” model is presented for estimating the historic pre-fishery abundance (PFA) of salmon for countries or regions around the Northeast Atlantic, based upon catch data and estimates of non-reporting rates and exploitation rates. These estimates are then used to develop predictive models of PFA on the basis of estimates of the egg deposition, derived from the run-reconstruction model and various environmental data. Although the selected environmental indices correlated with the PFA of both southern and northern European stock complexes, the main statistical significance in the forecast models was provided by temporal trends in the PFA. Clearly, such a model is only tenable in the short term, and will be poor at predicting a major change in stock status. Alternative approaches, based upon juvenile production indices and including Bayesian techniques, are therefore being considered. Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Greenland North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Norwegian Sea Salmo salar Oxford University Press Norwegian Sea Greenland ICES Journal of Marine Science 61 8 1359 1369 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Oxford University Press |
op_collection_id |
croxfordunivpr |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography Potter, E.C.E. Crozier, W.W. Schön, P-J. Nicholson, M.D. Maxwell, D.L. Prévost, E. Erkinaro, J. Gudbergsson, G. Karlsson, L. Hansen, L.P. MacLean, J.C. Ó Maoiléidigh, N. Prusov, S. Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries |
topic_facet |
Ecology Aquatic Science Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Oceanography |
description |
Abstract Most exploitation of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is restricted to “homewater fisheries”, which operate close to or within the rivers of origin of the stocks, but two “distant-water fisheries” are permitted to operate off the west coast of Greenland and in the Norwegian Sea, and take salmon from a large number of rivers over a wide geographical area. Providing robust quantitative catch advice for these mixed-stock fisheries depends upon the ability to forecast stock abundance for about 2000 salmon river-stocks around the North Atlantic, more than 1500 of which are in Europe. A “run-reconstruction” model is presented for estimating the historic pre-fishery abundance (PFA) of salmon for countries or regions around the Northeast Atlantic, based upon catch data and estimates of non-reporting rates and exploitation rates. These estimates are then used to develop predictive models of PFA on the basis of estimates of the egg deposition, derived from the run-reconstruction model and various environmental data. Although the selected environmental indices correlated with the PFA of both southern and northern European stock complexes, the main statistical significance in the forecast models was provided by temporal trends in the PFA. Clearly, such a model is only tenable in the short term, and will be poor at predicting a major change in stock status. Alternative approaches, based upon juvenile production indices and including Bayesian techniques, are therefore being considered. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Potter, E.C.E. Crozier, W.W. Schön, P-J. Nicholson, M.D. Maxwell, D.L. Prévost, E. Erkinaro, J. Gudbergsson, G. Karlsson, L. Hansen, L.P. MacLean, J.C. Ó Maoiléidigh, N. Prusov, S. |
author_facet |
Potter, E.C.E. Crozier, W.W. Schön, P-J. Nicholson, M.D. Maxwell, D.L. Prévost, E. Erkinaro, J. Gudbergsson, G. Karlsson, L. Hansen, L.P. MacLean, J.C. Ó Maoiléidigh, N. Prusov, S. |
author_sort |
Potter, E.C.E. |
title |
Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries |
title_short |
Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries |
title_full |
Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries |
title_fullStr |
Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the Northeast Atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries |
title_sort |
estimating and forecasting pre-fishery abundance of atlantic salmon (salmo salar l.) in the northeast atlantic for the management of mixed-stock fisheries |
publisher |
Oxford University Press (OUP) |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.08.012 http://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article-pdf/61/8/1359/29122514/61-8-1359.pdf |
geographic |
Norwegian Sea Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Norwegian Sea Greenland |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Greenland North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Norwegian Sea Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Greenland North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Norwegian Sea Salmo salar |
op_source |
ICES Journal of Marine Science volume 61, issue 8, page 1359-1369 ISSN 1095-9289 1054-3139 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icesjms.2004.08.012 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
61 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
1359 |
op_container_end_page |
1369 |
_version_ |
1790598040775557120 |