Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections
Abstract We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic Amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 multi-model mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approxima...
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crioppubl:10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 2024-06-02T08:01:32+00:00 Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections Hay, Stephanie Screen, James Catto, Jennifer L Natural Environment Research Council 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201/pdf unknown IOP Publishing https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research: Climate ISSN 2752-5295 journal-article 2024 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 2024-05-07T13:55:15Z Abstract We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic Amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 multi-model mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, both in time and across scenarios, resulting in negligibly small scenario uncertainty in the magnitude of AA. Deviations from the steady value can be found at the low and high emission scenarios due to different root causes, with the latter being mostly evident in the summer and autumn seasons. Best estimates of model uncertainty are at least an order of magnitude larger than scenario uncertainty in CMIP6. The large ensembles reveal that irreducible internal variability has a similar magnitude to model uncertainty for most of the 21st century, except in the lowest emission scenario at the end of the 21st century when it could be twice as large. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic IOP Publishing Arctic Environmental Research: Climate |
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description |
Abstract We examine sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic Amplification (AA) using the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble and single model initial-condition large ensembles of historical and future scenario simulations. In the CMIP6 multi-model mean, the annual mean AA ratio is steady at approximately 2.5, both in time and across scenarios, resulting in negligibly small scenario uncertainty in the magnitude of AA. Deviations from the steady value can be found at the low and high emission scenarios due to different root causes, with the latter being mostly evident in the summer and autumn seasons. Best estimates of model uncertainty are at least an order of magnitude larger than scenario uncertainty in CMIP6. The large ensembles reveal that irreducible internal variability has a similar magnitude to model uncertainty for most of the 21st century, except in the lowest emission scenario at the end of the 21st century when it could be twice as large. |
author2 |
Natural Environment Research Council |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hay, Stephanie Screen, James Catto, Jennifer L |
spellingShingle |
Hay, Stephanie Screen, James Catto, Jennifer L Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
author_facet |
Hay, Stephanie Screen, James Catto, Jennifer L |
author_sort |
Hay, Stephanie |
title |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_short |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_full |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_fullStr |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Steady but model dependent Arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century CMIP6 projections |
title_sort |
steady but model dependent arctic amplification of the forced temperature response in 21st century cmip6 projections |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Environmental Research: Climate ISSN 2752-5295 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4201 |
container_title |
Environmental Research: Climate |
_version_ |
1800745925888442368 |