Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO 2 concentrations
Abstract Arctic amplification (AA), referring to the phenomenon of amplified warming in the Arctic compared to the warming in the rest of the globe, is generally attributed to the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere. However, little attention has been paid to the me...
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crioppubl:10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2 2024-06-02T07:54:32+00:00 Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO 2 concentrations Zhou, Shih-Ni Liang, Yu-Chiao Mitevski, Ivan Polvani, Lorenzo M Ministry of Science and Technology 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research: Climate volume 2, issue 4, page 045001 ISSN 2752-5295 journal-article 2023 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2 2024-05-07T13:57:52Z Abstract Arctic amplification (AA), referring to the phenomenon of amplified warming in the Arctic compared to the warming in the rest of the globe, is generally attributed to the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere. However, little attention has been paid to the mechanisms and quantitative variations of AA under decreasing levels of CO 2 , when cooling where the Arctic region is considerably larger than over the rest of the planet. Analyzing climate model experiments forced with a wide range of CO 2 concentrations (from 1/8× to 8×CO 2 , with respect to preindustrial levels), we show that AA indeed occurs under decreasing CO 2 concentrations, and it is stronger than AA under increasing CO 2 concentrations. Feedback analysis reveals that the Planck, lapse-rate, and albedo feedbacks are the main contributors to producing AAs forced by CO 2 increase and decrease, but the stronger lapse-rate feedback associated with decreasing CO 2 level gives rise to stronger AA. We further find that the increasing CO 2 concentrations delay the peak month of AA from November to December or January, depending on the forcing strength. In contrast, decreasing CO 2 levels cannot shift the peak of AA earlier than October, as a consequence of the maximum sea-ice increase in September which is independent of forcing strength. Such seasonality changes are also presented in the lapse-rate feedback, but do not appear in other feedbacks nor in the atmospheric and oceanic heat transport processeses. Our results highlight the strongly asymmetric responses of AA, as evidenced by the different changes in its intensity and seasonality, to the increasing and decreasing CO 2 concentrations. These findings have significant implications for understanding how carbon removal could impact the Arctic climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic activities. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Sea ice IOP Publishing Arctic Environmental Research: Climate 2 4 045001 |
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Abstract Arctic amplification (AA), referring to the phenomenon of amplified warming in the Arctic compared to the warming in the rest of the globe, is generally attributed to the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere. However, little attention has been paid to the mechanisms and quantitative variations of AA under decreasing levels of CO 2 , when cooling where the Arctic region is considerably larger than over the rest of the planet. Analyzing climate model experiments forced with a wide range of CO 2 concentrations (from 1/8× to 8×CO 2 , with respect to preindustrial levels), we show that AA indeed occurs under decreasing CO 2 concentrations, and it is stronger than AA under increasing CO 2 concentrations. Feedback analysis reveals that the Planck, lapse-rate, and albedo feedbacks are the main contributors to producing AAs forced by CO 2 increase and decrease, but the stronger lapse-rate feedback associated with decreasing CO 2 level gives rise to stronger AA. We further find that the increasing CO 2 concentrations delay the peak month of AA from November to December or January, depending on the forcing strength. In contrast, decreasing CO 2 levels cannot shift the peak of AA earlier than October, as a consequence of the maximum sea-ice increase in September which is independent of forcing strength. Such seasonality changes are also presented in the lapse-rate feedback, but do not appear in other feedbacks nor in the atmospheric and oceanic heat transport processeses. Our results highlight the strongly asymmetric responses of AA, as evidenced by the different changes in its intensity and seasonality, to the increasing and decreasing CO 2 concentrations. These findings have significant implications for understanding how carbon removal could impact the Arctic climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic activities. |
author2 |
Ministry of Science and Technology |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhou, Shih-Ni Liang, Yu-Chiao Mitevski, Ivan Polvani, Lorenzo M |
spellingShingle |
Zhou, Shih-Ni Liang, Yu-Chiao Mitevski, Ivan Polvani, Lorenzo M Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO 2 concentrations |
author_facet |
Zhou, Shih-Ni Liang, Yu-Chiao Mitevski, Ivan Polvani, Lorenzo M |
author_sort |
Zhou, Shih-Ni |
title |
Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO 2 concentrations |
title_short |
Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO 2 concentrations |
title_full |
Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO 2 concentrations |
title_fullStr |
Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO 2 concentrations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO 2 concentrations |
title_sort |
stronger arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, co 2 concentrations |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research: Climate volume 2, issue 4, page 045001 ISSN 2752-5295 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/aceea2 |
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Environmental Research: Climate |
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2 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
045001 |
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1800740855572594688 |