Approaches to assessing the effectiveness of earthquake predictions using the LURR (load-unload response ratio) method on Sakhalin

• Published in: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
• Main Author: Zakupin, A S
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: IOP Publishing 2021
• Subjects: Sakhalin
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/946/1/012010; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/946/1/012010; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/946/1/012010/pdf

Abstract A retrospective analysis of the seismicity of Sakhalin from 1997 to 2019 was performed to demonstrate the possibilities of the LURR technique recently in previous our work. The following results were obtained: 84 % of earthquakes (16 out of 19, with M ≥ 5) are predicted, 25% alarms (4 out of 15 predicted areas) were false. This paper proposes an analytical dependence to describe the forecast effectiveness (Ke) for this research. The extremes of Ke were found at the value of the alarm period of 12 and 24 months. At the same time, Ke is significantly higher for the alarm period of 24 months and decreases after a two-year alarm period. Another way to prove the results obtained is the random spatio-temporal distributions of the predicted objects (19 earthquakes with M ≥ 5). 10 such random sets have been assigned to 15 predicted areas, the result shows a significant advantage of a real sample over random ones, and also practically confirms the reliability of the algorithm for using the LURR technique. The methodology and results of this work can serve as practical recommendations for working with the LURR method for seismologists.