An empirical method for the prediction of extreme low winter sea ice extent in the Barents Sea

• Published in: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
• Main Authors: Cherenkova, E A, Semenov, V A, Titkova, T B
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: IOP Publishing 2020
• Subjects: Barents Sea; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/611/1/012042; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/611/1/012042/pdf; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/611/1/012042

Abstract This study addresses a possibility to use surface air temperature (SAT) of the Northern Hemisphere as a potential predictor for winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea. The areas of most significant correlation between the leading modes of joint variability of the observed SIC in January-March and the SAT in the autumn, winter, and spring months in the 1979-2019 period are determined using a method of singular value decomposition (SVD) of covariance matrices. An analysis of the structure of this linkage has shown its robustness for SIC in the Barents Sea. The most strongly related areas are found in the first leading mode of the SVD analysis of the SIC in January-March and the SAT in November-January. The first SVD-mode explains in total 55% of covariation of both parameters. It has been revealed that the January-March SIC in the northern part of the Barents Sea is strongly correlated with the November-January SAT in Scandinavia and over the Barents Sea (the correlation coefficient is -0.8). The relationship between the SIC and SAT in key areas has allowed obtaining estimates of SIC in the northern part of the Barents Sea in the 21 st century from an ensemble of 30 CMIP5 GCMs by using models’ SAT data. It has been found that the RCP 4.5 scenario results in a strong reduction in the sea ice in the northern part of the Barents Sea by 2041-2050. At the same time, no complete disappearance of sea ice is expected until the end of the century. According to the aggressive scenario RCP 8.5, almost free-ice Barents Sea is expected by the middle of the 21 st century.