Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions
Abstract Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is proposed to limit the level of global warming and minimize the impacts of climate crises. However, how permafrost may respond to negative carbon emissions remains unknown. Here, the response of near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere is investigate...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6 2024-09-15T18:08:09+00:00 Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions Wei, Ting Chen, Yueli Wang, Hui National Natural Science Foundation of China Basic Research Fund of CAMS 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6/pdf unknown IOP Publishing https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 9, page 094032 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2024 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6 2024-08-12T04:14:27Z Abstract Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is proposed to limit the level of global warming and minimize the impacts of climate crises. However, how permafrost may respond to negative carbon emissions remains unknown. Here, the response of near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated based on idealized carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) ramp-up (284.7–1138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down model experiments. The results demonstrate that the timing of the minimum permafrost area lags the maximum CO 2 concentration for decades, which is also observed in soil temperatures at different depths and active layer thicknesses (ALTs). When the CO 2 concentration is reversed to the preindustrial level, the permafrost area decreases by ∼12% relative to the initial conditions, together with additional warming in the ground temperature at the top of the permafrost, indicating the hysteresis of permafrost to CO 2 removal. The most profound hysteretic responses occur at high latitudes for soil temperatures owing to Arctic amplification and at the southern margins of the permafrost zones for permafrost and ALT that largely linked to the climate state. Moreover, the sensitivity of permafrost and the associated thermodynamic factors to CO 2 change is generally lower during the CO 2 ramp-down phase than during the ramp-up phase, likely due to the release of stored heat on land. The results reveal the behaviour of permafrost in response to negative carbon emissions, which is informative for the projections of permafrost towards carbon neutral targets. In addition, the results may provide a reference for permafrost-related tipping points (e.g. releasing long-term stored greenhouse gases and destabilising recalcitrant soil carbon) and risk management in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Global warming permafrost IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 19 9 094032 |
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Abstract Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is proposed to limit the level of global warming and minimize the impacts of climate crises. However, how permafrost may respond to negative carbon emissions remains unknown. Here, the response of near-surface permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated based on idealized carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) ramp-up (284.7–1138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down model experiments. The results demonstrate that the timing of the minimum permafrost area lags the maximum CO 2 concentration for decades, which is also observed in soil temperatures at different depths and active layer thicknesses (ALTs). When the CO 2 concentration is reversed to the preindustrial level, the permafrost area decreases by ∼12% relative to the initial conditions, together with additional warming in the ground temperature at the top of the permafrost, indicating the hysteresis of permafrost to CO 2 removal. The most profound hysteretic responses occur at high latitudes for soil temperatures owing to Arctic amplification and at the southern margins of the permafrost zones for permafrost and ALT that largely linked to the climate state. Moreover, the sensitivity of permafrost and the associated thermodynamic factors to CO 2 change is generally lower during the CO 2 ramp-down phase than during the ramp-up phase, likely due to the release of stored heat on land. The results reveal the behaviour of permafrost in response to negative carbon emissions, which is informative for the projections of permafrost towards carbon neutral targets. In addition, the results may provide a reference for permafrost-related tipping points (e.g. releasing long-term stored greenhouse gases and destabilising recalcitrant soil carbon) and risk management in the future. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China Basic Research Fund of CAMS |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wei, Ting Chen, Yueli Wang, Hui |
spellingShingle |
Wei, Ting Chen, Yueli Wang, Hui Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions |
author_facet |
Wei, Ting Chen, Yueli Wang, Hui |
author_sort |
Wei, Ting |
title |
Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_short |
Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_full |
Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_fullStr |
Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_sort |
hysteresis of northern hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6/pdf |
genre |
Global warming permafrost |
genre_facet |
Global warming permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 9, page 094032 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
094032 |
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1810445491786219520 |