An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics
Abstract An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in pr...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 2024-06-02T08:11:29+00:00 An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics Monerie, Paul-Arthur Chadwick, Robin Wilcox, Laura J Turner, Andrew G Newton Fund Research Council of Norway National Centre for Atmospheric Science NERC Natural Environment Research Council Met Office 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 5, page 054048 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2024 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 2024-05-07T13:58:45Z Abstract An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 19 5 054048 |
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Abstract An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America. |
author2 |
Newton Fund Research Council of Norway National Centre for Atmospheric Science NERC Natural Environment Research Council Met Office |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Chadwick, Robin Wilcox, Laura J Turner, Andrew G |
spellingShingle |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Chadwick, Robin Wilcox, Laura J Turner, Andrew G An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
author_facet |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Chadwick, Robin Wilcox, Laura J Turner, Andrew G |
author_sort |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur |
title |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_short |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_full |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_fullStr |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_full_unstemmed |
An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
title_sort |
uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8/pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 5, page 054048 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad42b8 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054048 |
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1800757630209097728 |