Increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima
Abstract Extratropical cyclones play a crucial role in balancing the global momentum, energy, and moisture, and also, they shape the extreme weather events over the extra-tropics. As the strongest category of the extratropical cyclones, the explosive extratropical cyclones (EECs) frequently induce s...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 2024-06-02T08:11:16+00:00 Increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima Fu, Shen-Ming Ma, Hui Jiang, Li-Zhi National Natural Science Foundation of China National Natural Science Foundation of China National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 5, page 054009 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2024 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 2024-05-07T13:55:15Z Abstract Extratropical cyclones play a crucial role in balancing the global momentum, energy, and moisture, and also, they shape the extreme weather events over the extra-tropics. As the strongest category of the extratropical cyclones, the explosive extratropical cyclones (EECs) frequently induce severe disasters through their strong surface winds. During the entire lifespan of an EEC, there is a maximum value of its surface wind (i.e. the maximum surface wind; MSW), which processes the greatest destructive power. After nearly a century of research on the EECs, key features about their MSWs still remain vague. In this study, we systematically investigate the EECs’ MSWs over the North Atlantic storm track (NAST) based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis. It is found that, the average intensity of EECs’ MSWs shows a significant increasing trend of ∼0.3 m s −1 per 10a. More importantly, for the last 20 years, even larger increasing rates of 1.5 m s −1 and 3.5 m s −1 per 10a are found in the average and maximum intensities of the EECs’ MSWs, respectively, implying the EECs’ risks increase notably for the NAST. We further clarify the physical mechanisms governing the production of EECs’ MSWs, and then establish a mechanism-based statistical model, which has the potential to predict the MSWs’ annual average intensity. In summary, our study fills a knowledge gap for the EECs’ MSWs, which would have broad implication of the economics and society. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 19 5 054009 |
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Abstract Extratropical cyclones play a crucial role in balancing the global momentum, energy, and moisture, and also, they shape the extreme weather events over the extra-tropics. As the strongest category of the extratropical cyclones, the explosive extratropical cyclones (EECs) frequently induce severe disasters through their strong surface winds. During the entire lifespan of an EEC, there is a maximum value of its surface wind (i.e. the maximum surface wind; MSW), which processes the greatest destructive power. After nearly a century of research on the EECs, key features about their MSWs still remain vague. In this study, we systematically investigate the EECs’ MSWs over the North Atlantic storm track (NAST) based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis. It is found that, the average intensity of EECs’ MSWs shows a significant increasing trend of ∼0.3 m s −1 per 10a. More importantly, for the last 20 years, even larger increasing rates of 1.5 m s −1 and 3.5 m s −1 per 10a are found in the average and maximum intensities of the EECs’ MSWs, respectively, implying the EECs’ risks increase notably for the NAST. We further clarify the physical mechanisms governing the production of EECs’ MSWs, and then establish a mechanism-based statistical model, which has the potential to predict the MSWs’ annual average intensity. In summary, our study fills a knowledge gap for the EECs’ MSWs, which would have broad implication of the economics and society. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China National Natural Science Foundation of China National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fu, Shen-Ming Ma, Hui Jiang, Li-Zhi |
spellingShingle |
Fu, Shen-Ming Ma, Hui Jiang, Li-Zhi Increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima |
author_facet |
Fu, Shen-Ming Ma, Hui Jiang, Li-Zhi |
author_sort |
Fu, Shen-Ming |
title |
Increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima |
title_short |
Increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima |
title_full |
Increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima |
title_fullStr |
Increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima |
title_sort |
increasing risks of the explosive extratropical cyclones over the north atlantic storm track: a perspective from their surface wind maxima |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24/pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 5, page 054009 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3b24 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
054009 |
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1800757340571435008 |