Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections
Abstract The observed sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Arctic has receded substantially in recent decades, and future model projections predict a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the second half of this century. Nevertheless, the impact of the Pacific on Arctic sea ice projections has yet to receiv...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 2024-06-02T07:54:45+00:00 Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections Jahfer, Sharif Ha, Kyung-Ja Chung, Eui-Seok Franzke, Christian L E Sharma, Sahil 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 4, page 044033 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2024 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 2024-05-07T14:04:30Z Abstract The observed sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Arctic has receded substantially in recent decades, and future model projections predict a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the second half of this century. Nevertheless, the impact of the Pacific on Arctic sea ice projections has yet to receive much attention. Observations show that summertime Arctic SIC growth events are related to the weakening of the Aleutian low and cooling events over the equatorial Pacific, and vice versa. We demonstrate that under various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 projections, the models in which the impact of El Niño-driven SIC loss is significantly higher than the La Niña-related SIC growth tend to turn seasonally ice-free by about 10–20 years ahead of the ensemble mean under high-emission future scenarios. We show how the non-linear impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Arctic SIC resulted in a faster decline of summertime sea ice. The ENSO-related SIC changes in the multi-model ensemble mean of Arctic SIC are considerably lower than the internal variability and anthropogenic-driven changes. However, the asymmetric interannual ENSO effects over several decades and the resultant changes in surface heat fluxes over the Arctic lead to significant differences in the timing of sea ice extinction. Our results suggest that climate models must capture the realistic tropical Pacific–Arctic teleconnection to better predict the long-term evolution of the Arctic climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic Sea ice IOP Publishing Arctic Pacific Environmental Research Letters 19 4 044033 |
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Abstract The observed sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Arctic has receded substantially in recent decades, and future model projections predict a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the second half of this century. Nevertheless, the impact of the Pacific on Arctic sea ice projections has yet to receive much attention. Observations show that summertime Arctic SIC growth events are related to the weakening of the Aleutian low and cooling events over the equatorial Pacific, and vice versa. We demonstrate that under various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 projections, the models in which the impact of El Niño-driven SIC loss is significantly higher than the La Niña-related SIC growth tend to turn seasonally ice-free by about 10–20 years ahead of the ensemble mean under high-emission future scenarios. We show how the non-linear impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Arctic SIC resulted in a faster decline of summertime sea ice. The ENSO-related SIC changes in the multi-model ensemble mean of Arctic SIC are considerably lower than the internal variability and anthropogenic-driven changes. However, the asymmetric interannual ENSO effects over several decades and the resultant changes in surface heat fluxes over the Arctic lead to significant differences in the timing of sea ice extinction. Our results suggest that climate models must capture the realistic tropical Pacific–Arctic teleconnection to better predict the long-term evolution of the Arctic climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jahfer, Sharif Ha, Kyung-Ja Chung, Eui-Seok Franzke, Christian L E Sharma, Sahil |
spellingShingle |
Jahfer, Sharif Ha, Kyung-Ja Chung, Eui-Seok Franzke, Christian L E Sharma, Sahil Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections |
author_facet |
Jahfer, Sharif Ha, Kyung-Ja Chung, Eui-Seok Franzke, Christian L E Sharma, Sahil |
author_sort |
Jahfer, Sharif |
title |
Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections |
title_short |
Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections |
title_full |
Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections |
title_fullStr |
Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Unveiling the role of tropical Pacific on the emergence of ice-free Arctic projections |
title_sort |
unveiling the role of tropical pacific on the emergence of ice-free arctic projections |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 4, page 044033 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3141 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
044033 |
_version_ |
1800743338270261248 |