Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios
Abstract The carbon-rich northern high-latitude permafrost is a potential climate tipping point. Once triggered, its thawing and release of carbon dioxide and methane might unleash irreversible changes in the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the response of permafrost under three Shared Socioe...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433 2024-06-02T08:12:54+00:00 Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Chen, Yangxin Moore, John C Ji, Duoying National Nature Science Foundation of China 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 2, page 024050 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2024 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433 2024-05-07T14:06:20Z Abstract The carbon-rich northern high-latitude permafrost is a potential climate tipping point. Once triggered, its thawing and release of carbon dioxide and methane might unleash irreversible changes in the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the response of permafrost under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with no mitigation (SSP5-8.5), moderate mitigation (SSP2-4.5) and delayed mitigation (SSP5-3.4-OS), and three solar geoengineering scenarios applied to each experiment to prevent global warming from exceeding 2 °C above pre-industrial. The long-term negative emissions in SSP5-3.4-OS preserves much more frozen soil than SSP5-8.5, but shows nearly as much permafrost carbon loss this century as SSP2-4.5 due to its mid-century temperature overshoot. Solar geoengineering to meet the 2 °C target above pre-industrial effectively suppresses permafrost thawing and reduces subsequent carbon release from the soil. However, the carbon emission from permafrost still continues after the temperature is stabilized, due to the decomposition of thawed permafrost carbon. More solar insolation reduction is required to compensate the positive permafrost carbon feedback, which exerts greater impacts on the efficiency of solar geoengineering under a scenario with strong climate policy and lower carbon emissions. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 19 2 024050 |
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Abstract The carbon-rich northern high-latitude permafrost is a potential climate tipping point. Once triggered, its thawing and release of carbon dioxide and methane might unleash irreversible changes in the Earth’s climate system. We investigate the response of permafrost under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with no mitigation (SSP5-8.5), moderate mitigation (SSP2-4.5) and delayed mitigation (SSP5-3.4-OS), and three solar geoengineering scenarios applied to each experiment to prevent global warming from exceeding 2 °C above pre-industrial. The long-term negative emissions in SSP5-3.4-OS preserves much more frozen soil than SSP5-8.5, but shows nearly as much permafrost carbon loss this century as SSP2-4.5 due to its mid-century temperature overshoot. Solar geoengineering to meet the 2 °C target above pre-industrial effectively suppresses permafrost thawing and reduces subsequent carbon release from the soil. However, the carbon emission from permafrost still continues after the temperature is stabilized, due to the decomposition of thawed permafrost carbon. More solar insolation reduction is required to compensate the positive permafrost carbon feedback, which exerts greater impacts on the efficiency of solar geoengineering under a scenario with strong climate policy and lower carbon emissions. |
author2 |
National Nature Science Foundation of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chen, Yangxin Moore, John C Ji, Duoying |
spellingShingle |
Chen, Yangxin Moore, John C Ji, Duoying Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios |
author_facet |
Chen, Yangxin Moore, John C Ji, Duoying |
author_sort |
Chen, Yangxin |
title |
Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios |
title_short |
Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios |
title_full |
Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios |
title_sort |
simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433/pdf |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 2, page 024050 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024050 |
_version_ |
1800759483314470912 |