Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern
Abstract The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potentia...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a 2024-06-02T08:01:02+00:00 Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern Ghosh, Rohit Manzini, Elisa Gao, Yongqi Gastineau, Guillaume Cherchi, Annalisa Frankignoul, Claude Liang, Yu-Chiao Kwon, Young-Oh Suo, Lingling Tyrlis, Evangelos Mecking, Jennifer V Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying Matei, Daniela BMBF JPI Climate/JPI Oceans EU Horizon 2020 NSF Office of Polar Programs National Key R&D Program of China EU Horizon 2020 2024 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 2, page 024018 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2024 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a 2024-05-07T14:04:36Z Abstract The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of BKS SIC on this WACE pattern of variability and on its long-term trend remains elusive. Here, we show that from 1979 to 2022, the winter BKS SIC and WACE association is most prominent and statistically significant for the variability at the sub-decadal time scale for 5–6 years. We also show the critical role of the multi-decadal trend in the principal component of the WACE mode of variability for explaining the overall Eurasian winter temperature trend over the same period. Furthermore, a large multi-model ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments from 1979 to 2014, with and without the observed Arctic SIC forcing, suggests that the BKS SIC variations induce this observed sub-decadal variability and the multi-decadal trend in the WACE. Additionally, we analyse the model simulated first or the leading EOF mode of Eurasian winter SAT variability, which in observations, closely relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find a weaker association of this mode to AO and a statistically significant positive trend in our ensemble simulation, opposite to that found in observation. This contrasting nature reflects excessive hemispheric warming in the models, partly contributed by the modelled Arctic Sea ice loss. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice IOP Publishing Arctic Kara Sea Environmental Research Letters |
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IOP Publishing |
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Abstract The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of BKS SIC on this WACE pattern of variability and on its long-term trend remains elusive. Here, we show that from 1979 to 2022, the winter BKS SIC and WACE association is most prominent and statistically significant for the variability at the sub-decadal time scale for 5–6 years. We also show the critical role of the multi-decadal trend in the principal component of the WACE mode of variability for explaining the overall Eurasian winter temperature trend over the same period. Furthermore, a large multi-model ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments from 1979 to 2014, with and without the observed Arctic SIC forcing, suggests that the BKS SIC variations induce this observed sub-decadal variability and the multi-decadal trend in the WACE. Additionally, we analyse the model simulated first or the leading EOF mode of Eurasian winter SAT variability, which in observations, closely relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find a weaker association of this mode to AO and a statistically significant positive trend in our ensemble simulation, opposite to that found in observation. This contrasting nature reflects excessive hemispheric warming in the models, partly contributed by the modelled Arctic Sea ice loss. |
author2 |
BMBF JPI Climate/JPI Oceans EU Horizon 2020 NSF Office of Polar Programs National Key R&D Program of China EU Horizon 2020 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ghosh, Rohit Manzini, Elisa Gao, Yongqi Gastineau, Guillaume Cherchi, Annalisa Frankignoul, Claude Liang, Yu-Chiao Kwon, Young-Oh Suo, Lingling Tyrlis, Evangelos Mecking, Jennifer V Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying Matei, Daniela |
spellingShingle |
Ghosh, Rohit Manzini, Elisa Gao, Yongqi Gastineau, Guillaume Cherchi, Annalisa Frankignoul, Claude Liang, Yu-Chiao Kwon, Young-Oh Suo, Lingling Tyrlis, Evangelos Mecking, Jennifer V Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying Matei, Daniela Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
author_facet |
Ghosh, Rohit Manzini, Elisa Gao, Yongqi Gastineau, Guillaume Cherchi, Annalisa Frankignoul, Claude Liang, Yu-Chiao Kwon, Young-Oh Suo, Lingling Tyrlis, Evangelos Mecking, Jennifer V Tian, Tian Zhang, Ying Matei, Daniela |
author_sort |
Ghosh, Rohit |
title |
Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
title_short |
Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
title_full |
Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
title_fullStr |
Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern |
title_sort |
observed winter barents kara sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the warm arctic cold eurasia pattern |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 2, page 024018 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1c1a |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
_version_ |
1800745270252666880 |