Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations
Abstract Global mean sea level rise, driven by ice mass loss in Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (AIS and GrIS), is a significant consequence of global warming. Although various ice sheet models have attempted to predict the ice mass balance and subsequent sea level changes, non-trivial disagreeme...
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Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8/pdf |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 2024-06-02T07:58:13+00:00 Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations Lee, Donghyuck Kim, Byeong-Hoon Seo, Ki-Weon Lee, Won Sang Lee, Choon-Ki Jeon, Taehwan Jin, Emilia Kyung Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 1, page 014058 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2023 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 2024-05-07T14:04:10Z Abstract Global mean sea level rise, driven by ice mass loss in Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (AIS and GrIS), is a significant consequence of global warming. Although various ice sheet models have attempted to predict the ice mass balance and subsequent sea level changes, non-trivial disagreements between models exist. In this study, we employ an empirical approach to estimate the future (2050) ice mass changes for both ice sheets, assuming their historical patterns of ice dynamics would persist in the coming decades. To achieve this, we estimate decadal-scale ice discharge variations by subtracting the surface mass balance (SMB) from the observed ice mass changes and extrapolate linear trend and acceleration components of ice discharges up to 2050. We also consider future SMB data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models to estimate net ice mass balance. Our estimates suggest that from 2021 to 2050, the global sea level rise due to AIS and GrIS ranges between 6–19 mm and 15–31 mm, respectively. Additionally, we investigate regional sea level variability resulting from geoid changes induced by ice mass changes in both regions, highlighting that heterogeneous sea level changes may cause more pronounced sea level rises in lower latitude regions, where major cities are located. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet IOP Publishing Antarctic Greenland Environmental Research Letters 19 1 014058 |
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Abstract Global mean sea level rise, driven by ice mass loss in Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (AIS and GrIS), is a significant consequence of global warming. Although various ice sheet models have attempted to predict the ice mass balance and subsequent sea level changes, non-trivial disagreements between models exist. In this study, we employ an empirical approach to estimate the future (2050) ice mass changes for both ice sheets, assuming their historical patterns of ice dynamics would persist in the coming decades. To achieve this, we estimate decadal-scale ice discharge variations by subtracting the surface mass balance (SMB) from the observed ice mass changes and extrapolate linear trend and acceleration components of ice discharges up to 2050. We also consider future SMB data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 models to estimate net ice mass balance. Our estimates suggest that from 2021 to 2050, the global sea level rise due to AIS and GrIS ranges between 6–19 mm and 15–31 mm, respectively. Additionally, we investigate regional sea level variability resulting from geoid changes induced by ice mass changes in both regions, highlighting that heterogeneous sea level changes may cause more pronounced sea level rises in lower latitude regions, where major cities are located. |
author2 |
Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lee, Donghyuck Kim, Byeong-Hoon Seo, Ki-Weon Lee, Won Sang Lee, Choon-Ki Jeon, Taehwan Jin, Emilia Kyung |
spellingShingle |
Lee, Donghyuck Kim, Byeong-Hoon Seo, Ki-Weon Lee, Won Sang Lee, Choon-Ki Jeon, Taehwan Jin, Emilia Kyung Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations |
author_facet |
Lee, Donghyuck Kim, Byeong-Hoon Seo, Ki-Weon Lee, Won Sang Lee, Choon-Ki Jeon, Taehwan Jin, Emilia Kyung |
author_sort |
Lee, Donghyuck |
title |
Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations |
title_short |
Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations |
title_full |
Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations |
title_fullStr |
Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by Antarctic and Greenland ice mass variations |
title_sort |
empirical projection of global sea level in 2050 driven by antarctic and greenland ice mass variations |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8/pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 19, issue 1, page 014058 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad13b8 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014058 |
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1800741492363362304 |