Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6
Abstract One of the most dramatic climate responses to future global warming is the near-disappearance of the perennial sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a phenomenon known as the ice-free summer Arctic. The immediate consequence of an ice-free Arctic would be the surface warming of the cen...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a 2024-06-02T08:00:17+00:00 Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 Han, Ju-Seok Park, Hyo-Seok Chung, Eui-Seok Korea Polar Research Institute National Research Foundation of Korea 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 18, issue 12, page 124047 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2023 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a 2024-05-07T14:02:32Z Abstract One of the most dramatic climate responses to future global warming is the near-disappearance of the perennial sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a phenomenon known as the ice-free summer Arctic. The immediate consequence of an ice-free Arctic would be the surface warming of the central Arctic Ocean, where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used to be at freezing levels. Through an analysis of climate models participating in the climate model intercomparison project phase-6, this study demonstrates a wide range of responses in the central Arctic SSTs in August–September as a result of the projected ice-free summer Arctic. These responses vary from 0.7 to 8 °C in the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2-4.5), referred to as the ‘middle of the road’ scenario, in which socioeconomic and technological trends do not significantly deviate from historical patterns. The extent of the central Arctic sea surface warming in August–September is found to have a loose correlation with the September sea ice extent (SIE), but a stronger connection to the SIE during spring to early summer (May–July), when incoming shortwave radiation is most intense. In certain climate models, the perennial sea ice cover disappears completely in September, causing central Arctic SSTs to rise by 5 °C–8 °C by the end of the 21st century. This leads to a bimodal distribution of annual SSTs. Further analysis reveals a close relationship between mid-summer SSTs in the central Arctic Ocean and preceding winter sea ice thickness (SIT). This underscores the significance of winter SIT in predicting future Arctic surface warming and marine heatwaves. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice IOP Publishing Arctic Arctic Ocean Environmental Research Letters 18 12 124047 |
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Abstract One of the most dramatic climate responses to future global warming is the near-disappearance of the perennial sea ice cover in the central Arctic Ocean, a phenomenon known as the ice-free summer Arctic. The immediate consequence of an ice-free Arctic would be the surface warming of the central Arctic Ocean, where sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used to be at freezing levels. Through an analysis of climate models participating in the climate model intercomparison project phase-6, this study demonstrates a wide range of responses in the central Arctic SSTs in August–September as a result of the projected ice-free summer Arctic. These responses vary from 0.7 to 8 °C in the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2-4.5), referred to as the ‘middle of the road’ scenario, in which socioeconomic and technological trends do not significantly deviate from historical patterns. The extent of the central Arctic sea surface warming in August–September is found to have a loose correlation with the September sea ice extent (SIE), but a stronger connection to the SIE during spring to early summer (May–July), when incoming shortwave radiation is most intense. In certain climate models, the perennial sea ice cover disappears completely in September, causing central Arctic SSTs to rise by 5 °C–8 °C by the end of the 21st century. This leads to a bimodal distribution of annual SSTs. Further analysis reveals a close relationship between mid-summer SSTs in the central Arctic Ocean and preceding winter sea ice thickness (SIT). This underscores the significance of winter SIT in predicting future Arctic surface warming and marine heatwaves. |
author2 |
Korea Polar Research Institute National Research Foundation of Korea |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Han, Ju-Seok Park, Hyo-Seok Chung, Eui-Seok |
spellingShingle |
Han, Ju-Seok Park, Hyo-Seok Chung, Eui-Seok Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 |
author_facet |
Han, Ju-Seok Park, Hyo-Seok Chung, Eui-Seok |
author_sort |
Han, Ju-Seok |
title |
Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections of central Arctic summer sea surface temperatures in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
projections of central arctic summer sea surface temperatures in cmip6 |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 18, issue 12, page 124047 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0c8a |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124047 |
_version_ |
1800744275337543680 |