Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding
Abstract The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective respo...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac 2024-06-23T07:44:56+00:00 Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding Wang, Ziyi Xiao, Ming Nicolsky, Dmitry Romanovsky, Vladimir McComb, Christopher Farquharson, Louise National Science Foundation 2023 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 18, issue 10, page 104003 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2023 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac 2024-06-10T04:10:57Z Abstract The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measures. We developed a holistic framework, the Arctic Coastal Hazard Index (ACHI), to assess the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to permafrost thawing, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. We quantified the coastal permafrost thaw potential (PTP) through regional assessment of thaw subsidence using ground settlement index. The calculations of the ground settlement index involve utilizing projections of permafrost conditions, including future regional mean annual ground temperature, active layer thickness, and talik thickness. The predicted thaw subsidence was validated through a comparison with observed long-term subsidence data. The ACHI incorporates the PTP into seven physical and ecological variables for coastal hazard assessment: shoreline type, habitat, relief, wind exposure, wave exposure, surge potential, and sea-level rise. The coastal hazard assessment was conducted for each 1 km 2 coastline of North Slope Borough, Alaska in the 2060s under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 forcing scenarios. The areas that are prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution pattern of the ACHI. The calculated coastal hazards potential was subjected to validation by comparing it with the observed and historical long-term coastal erosion mean rates. This framework for Arctic coastal assessment may assist policy and decision-making for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and civil infrastructure planning. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Arctic north slope permafrost Talik Alaska IOP Publishing Arctic Talik ENVELOPE(146.601,146.601,59.667,59.667) Environmental Research Letters 18 10 104003 |
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Abstract The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measures. We developed a holistic framework, the Arctic Coastal Hazard Index (ACHI), to assess the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to permafrost thawing, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. We quantified the coastal permafrost thaw potential (PTP) through regional assessment of thaw subsidence using ground settlement index. The calculations of the ground settlement index involve utilizing projections of permafrost conditions, including future regional mean annual ground temperature, active layer thickness, and talik thickness. The predicted thaw subsidence was validated through a comparison with observed long-term subsidence data. The ACHI incorporates the PTP into seven physical and ecological variables for coastal hazard assessment: shoreline type, habitat, relief, wind exposure, wave exposure, surge potential, and sea-level rise. The coastal hazard assessment was conducted for each 1 km 2 coastline of North Slope Borough, Alaska in the 2060s under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 forcing scenarios. The areas that are prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution pattern of the ACHI. The calculated coastal hazards potential was subjected to validation by comparing it with the observed and historical long-term coastal erosion mean rates. This framework for Arctic coastal assessment may assist policy and decision-making for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and civil infrastructure planning. |
author2 |
National Science Foundation |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Ziyi Xiao, Ming Nicolsky, Dmitry Romanovsky, Vladimir McComb, Christopher Farquharson, Louise |
spellingShingle |
Wang, Ziyi Xiao, Ming Nicolsky, Dmitry Romanovsky, Vladimir McComb, Christopher Farquharson, Louise Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
author_facet |
Wang, Ziyi Xiao, Ming Nicolsky, Dmitry Romanovsky, Vladimir McComb, Christopher Farquharson, Louise |
author_sort |
Wang, Ziyi |
title |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_short |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_full |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_fullStr |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
title_sort |
arctic coastal hazard assessment considering permafrost thaw subsidence, coastal erosion, and flooding |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac/pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(146.601,146.601,59.667,59.667) |
geographic |
Arctic Talik |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Talik |
genre |
Active layer thickness Arctic north slope permafrost Talik Alaska |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Arctic north slope permafrost Talik Alaska |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 18, issue 10, page 104003 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf4ac |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104003 |
_version_ |
1802641255236108288 |