Elevation dependency of future degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: Zhang, Guofei, Mu, Cuicui, Nan, Zhuotong, Wu, Xiaodong, Cheng, Guodong
• Other Authors: Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: IOP Publishing 2023
• Subjects: permafrost
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ace0d1; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ace0d1; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ace0d1/pdf

Abstract Global warming has caused widespread permafrost degradation, but the geographic regularity of permafrost degradation is unknown. Here, we investigated the three-dimensional features of future permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our findings show that permafrost degradation under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) has obvious three-dimensional characteristics. In comparison to latitude and aridity, permafrost degradation is closely related to elevation, i.e. it slows with elevation, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent degradation. The pattern of elevation-dependent degradation is consistent across four subzones and is strongly linked to thermal conditions that vary with elevation. Under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, remarkable elevation-dependent warming (EDW) is observed at 3600–4900 m, but changes in mean annual ground temperature of permafrost and EDW as altitude rises are anti-phase. Under any SSP, the magnitude of mean annual air temperature along altitude belts determines the degree of permafrost degradation ( R 2 > 0.90). This research provides new insight on the evolution of permafrost.