ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate
Abstract The causality between Arctic sea ice decline and cold boreal winters has been widely debated recently and remains controversial. A major source of uncertainty in the sea ice-cold winter relationship originates from that the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) is not only affected by Arctic sea...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 2024-06-02T07:54:45+00:00 ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate Ma, Xuan Wang, Lei Smith, Doug Hermanson, Leon Eade, Rosie Dunstone, Nick Hardiman, Steven Zhang, Jiankai 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 12, page 124016 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2022 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 2024-05-07T13:55:58Z Abstract The causality between Arctic sea ice decline and cold boreal winters has been widely debated recently and remains controversial. A major source of uncertainty in the sea ice-cold winter relationship originates from that the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) is not only affected by Arctic sea ice anomaly but can also be modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using reanalysis data and hindcasts from the decadal prediction system version 4, here we show that both cold and warm winters occur over Eurasia when the Barents–Kara Sea sea ice is abnormally low. Warm winters occur during the La Niña-easterly QBO-low sea ice (LANINA-EQBO-LICE) years and cold winters during the neutral ENSO-neutral QBO (NENSO-NQBO)-LICE and El Niño (ELNINO)-NQBO-LICE years. During the LANINA-EQBO-LICE years, weakened upward-propagating planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere strengthen the Arctic SPV and then weaken the Aleutian low and Siberian high, creating conditions favorable for Eurasian warming. The atmospheric responses are opposite in the NENSO-NQBO-LICE and ELNINO-NQBO-LICE years. This implies that care should be taken in using Arctic sea ice alone as the precursor to predict boreal winter climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice IOP Publishing Arctic Kara Sea Environmental Research Letters |
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IOP Publishing |
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Abstract The causality between Arctic sea ice decline and cold boreal winters has been widely debated recently and remains controversial. A major source of uncertainty in the sea ice-cold winter relationship originates from that the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) is not only affected by Arctic sea ice anomaly but can also be modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using reanalysis data and hindcasts from the decadal prediction system version 4, here we show that both cold and warm winters occur over Eurasia when the Barents–Kara Sea sea ice is abnormally low. Warm winters occur during the La Niña-easterly QBO-low sea ice (LANINA-EQBO-LICE) years and cold winters during the neutral ENSO-neutral QBO (NENSO-NQBO)-LICE and El Niño (ELNINO)-NQBO-LICE years. During the LANINA-EQBO-LICE years, weakened upward-propagating planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere strengthen the Arctic SPV and then weaken the Aleutian low and Siberian high, creating conditions favorable for Eurasian warming. The atmospheric responses are opposite in the NENSO-NQBO-LICE and ELNINO-NQBO-LICE years. This implies that care should be taken in using Arctic sea ice alone as the precursor to predict boreal winter climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ma, Xuan Wang, Lei Smith, Doug Hermanson, Leon Eade, Rosie Dunstone, Nick Hardiman, Steven Zhang, Jiankai |
spellingShingle |
Ma, Xuan Wang, Lei Smith, Doug Hermanson, Leon Eade, Rosie Dunstone, Nick Hardiman, Steven Zhang, Jiankai ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
author_facet |
Ma, Xuan Wang, Lei Smith, Doug Hermanson, Leon Eade, Rosie Dunstone, Nick Hardiman, Steven Zhang, Jiankai |
author_sort |
Ma, Xuan |
title |
ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
title_short |
ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
title_full |
ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
title_fullStr |
ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
title_sort |
enso and qbo modulation of the relationship between arctic sea ice loss and eurasian winter climate |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9/pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
aleutian low Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Arctic Kara Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 12, page 124016 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
_version_ |
1800743318783524864 |