Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes
Abstract The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 2024-10-06T13:45:20+00:00 Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes Yu, Linfei Leng, Guoyong Tang, Qiuhong National Natural Science Foundation of China National Key Research and Development Program of China 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 12, page 124004 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2022 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 2024-09-09T05:45:38Z Abstract The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabilities of the separate contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), natural forcing agents (NATs; solar radiation and volcanic activity combined) and other anthropogenic (OANT) forcing agents (which are dominated by aerosols) on Arctic land surface air temperatures remain underexamined. Here, we use CMIP6 (the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models to quantify the separate contributions of GHGs, NATs and OANT forcing agents to Arctic land surface air temperature changes and analyze their spatial and temporal change patterns from 1915 to 2014. The results show that GHGs alone have warmed the Arctic by 2.72 °C/century (90% confidence interval: 1.42 °C–4.03 °C), 61.8% of which has been offset by OANT agents. The GHG-induced warming peaks are found in Ellesmere Island, Severnaya Zemlya and Svalbard (above 4 °C/century), while the largest cooling effects (above −2 °C/century) induced by OANT agents occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Severnaya Zemlya. A further temporal evolution analysis indicates that the effects of GHGs and OANT forcings have been gradually and robustly detected over time; this increases our confidence in projecting future Arctic climate changes via CMIP6 models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Ellesmere Island Krasnoyarsk Krai Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard IOP Publishing Arctic Ellesmere Island Severnaya Zemlya ENVELOPE(98.000,98.000,79.500,79.500) Svalbard Environmental Research Letters 17 12 124004 |
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Abstract The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabilities of the separate contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), natural forcing agents (NATs; solar radiation and volcanic activity combined) and other anthropogenic (OANT) forcing agents (which are dominated by aerosols) on Arctic land surface air temperatures remain underexamined. Here, we use CMIP6 (the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models to quantify the separate contributions of GHGs, NATs and OANT forcing agents to Arctic land surface air temperature changes and analyze their spatial and temporal change patterns from 1915 to 2014. The results show that GHGs alone have warmed the Arctic by 2.72 °C/century (90% confidence interval: 1.42 °C–4.03 °C), 61.8% of which has been offset by OANT agents. The GHG-induced warming peaks are found in Ellesmere Island, Severnaya Zemlya and Svalbard (above 4 °C/century), while the largest cooling effects (above −2 °C/century) induced by OANT agents occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Severnaya Zemlya. A further temporal evolution analysis indicates that the effects of GHGs and OANT forcings have been gradually and robustly detected over time; this increases our confidence in projecting future Arctic climate changes via CMIP6 models. |
author2 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China National Key Research and Development Program of China |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yu, Linfei Leng, Guoyong Tang, Qiuhong |
spellingShingle |
Yu, Linfei Leng, Guoyong Tang, Qiuhong Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
author_facet |
Yu, Linfei Leng, Guoyong Tang, Qiuhong |
author_sort |
Yu, Linfei |
title |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_short |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_full |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_fullStr |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
title_sort |
varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to arctic land surface air temperature changes |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3/pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(98.000,98.000,79.500,79.500) |
geographic |
Arctic Ellesmere Island Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Ellesmere Island Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Ellesmere Island Krasnoyarsk Krai Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Ellesmere Island Krasnoyarsk Krai Severnaya Zemlya Svalbard |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 12, page 124004 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124004 |
_version_ |
1812173731406020608 |