Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change
Abstract Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost tem...
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crioppubl:10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 2024-06-02T08:12:54+00:00 Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung 2022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2/pdf unknown IOP Publishing http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 9, page 095014 ISSN 1748-9326 journal-article 2022 crioppubl https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 2024-05-07T13:56:59Z Abstract Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost IOP Publishing Environmental Research Letters 17 9 095014 |
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Abstract Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming. |
author2 |
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K |
spellingShingle |
Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
author_facet |
Gudmundsson, Lukas Kirchner, Josefine Gädeke, Anne Noetzli, Jeannette Biskaborn, Boris K |
author_sort |
Gudmundsson, Lukas |
title |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_short |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_full |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_fullStr |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
title_sort |
attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2/pdf |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters volume 17, issue 9, page 095014 ISSN 1748-9326 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
095014 |
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1800759476562690048 |